The Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll released yesterday reported that, while Obama's approval rating remains at a relatively high 61 percent among Hispanics, that's down 21 percent from the April 2009 figure of 81 percent. Hispanic support for the president has dropped more than white support (-15 percent) and black support (-2 percent) over the same time span.
And 41 percent of Hispanics said Obama isn't paying enough attention to the concerns of Hispanics, according to a Pew survey (focusing primarily on blacks' attitudes toward race, released on Tuesday).
"That 3-point difference doesn't sound too bad for the Democrats, but the party's numbers are boosted by high levels of support in districts that the GOP has no chance of winning this year," says Holland. "In safe Democratic districts, the Dems have a 21-point advantage over the GOP."
The poll paints a different picture in more competitive districts, those where the incumbent won with less than 55 percent of the vote in 2008. In those districts, the poll indicates Democrats are currently facing a 27-point deficit, with 59 percent of registered voters in the competitive districts now saying they would vote for the Republican candidate for U.S. House if the election were held tomorrow, and only 32 percent that they would choose the Democratic candidate.
"That suggests big losses for the Democrats this November. But keep in mind that there is a lot of white noise in the data, because it is almost impossible to accurately model individual House districts," adds Holland.