Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments -- now including a war in the Middle East.
Alexander Wardm Lara Seligman, Alex Leary, and Vera Bergengruen at WSJ:
Adam Cancryn et al. at CNN:Before the U.S. went to war, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told President Trump that an American attack could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Caine said in several briefings that U.S. officials had long believed Iran would deploy mines, drones and missiles to close the world’s most vital shipping lane, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.
Trump acknowledged the risk, these people said, but moved forward with the most consequential foreign-policy decision of his two presidencies. He told his team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait—and even if Iran tried, the U.S. military could handle it.
Now, two weeks into the war, Iran’s leaders have refused to back down, and the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as Tehran’s most potent leverage point.
Instead of rapid collapse, the Iranian regime has consolidated control, and responded more aggressively than US officials expected, firing on targets across the Middle East, including oil tankers in the region. Iran has effectively halted the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, sparking a global energy crisis that the administration is now struggling to contain.
Trump has continued to tout the war as a resounding success, seizing on the scale of the military operation and suggesting the US could declare victory at any moment. But two weeks in, the administration is no closer to articulating a defined strategy for finishing a conflict that has grown only more complicated by the day, according to interviews with more than a half-dozen people familiar with the internal deliberations.
Thirteen American service members have died thus far, and roughly 140 others have been wounded since the fighting began. Across the US, there is little indication in early polling that the public is on board with the idea of war.
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On Friday, the average per-gallon price of gas in the US stood at $3.63, an increase of 65 cents since the war began and the highest level in nearly two years.
Within the Republican Party, the surge has undercut a core element of its political pitch ahead of midterm elections focused chiefly on the cost-of-living, erasing all the progress made toward lower gas prices since Trump took office.
