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Showing posts with label Walz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Walz. Show all posts

Friday, October 25, 2024

Russia and Campaign 2024

 Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses foreign influence and Trump's attack on democracy.  Russia helped Trump through 2020.  As Russia began its latest invasion of UkraineTrump lavished praise on Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. 

David Klepper at AP:

Groups in Russia created and helped spread viral disinformation targeting Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, a senior U.S. intelligence official said Tuesday.

The content, which includes baseless accusations about the Minnesota governor’s time as a teacher, contains several indications that it was manipulated, said the official with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Analysts identified clues that linked the content to Russian disinformation operations, said the official, who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity under rules set by the office of the director.

Digital researchers had already linked the video to Russia, but Tuesday’s announcement is the first time federal authorities have confirmed the connection.

The disinformation targeting Walz is consistent with Russian disinformation seeking to undermine the Democratic campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris and Walz, her running mate. Russia also has spread disinformation aimed at stoking discord and division ahead of voting, officials said, and may seek to encourage violent protests after Election Day.

 JD Vance goes full moral equivalence on NewsNation:

Both of these parties want this war to end. And I think unfortunately, you’ve got a lot of American leaders who like to beat their chest and say, Well, this is the good guy and that’s the bad guy. Look, yes, Russia should not have invaded Ukraine, but we are where we are, and what’s in the best interest of America, and what I believe is in the best interest of Ukraine and Russia is for the killing to stop. 

Wednesday, October 2, 2024

Veep Debate

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses the state of the partiesThe state of the GOP is not good.  And neither is the selection of J.D. Vance as its vice presidential candidate. -- despite a slick performance in his debate with Walz.

Sean Craig at The Daily Beast:

Fox & Friends host Steve Doocy couldn’t help but let his voice slip up a quarter of an octave as he read out the results of a Politico/Focaldata snap poll that showed likely voters were split 50/50 over who won Tuesday’s debate between vice presidential candidates JD Vance and Tim Walz.

Republican commentators and MAGA spectators alike rejoiced Tuesday evening after Vance submitted a polished performance, seemingly expecting a public groundswell of support would emerge for former president Donald Trump's running mate.

...

“Politico just published a snap poll… people found it a tie, a 50/50 tie,” he said, his voice trending high and befuddled. Even worse for the onetime Jimmy Carter supporter turned Republican Trump voter was that Walz appeared to clean up with independents.



Andrew Prokop et al. at Vox:

The vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance on Tuesday was something of a stalemate, though it did feature several striking moments and offered an interesting preview into what presidential politics might look like once Donald Trump is off the stage.

It isn’t clear yet how genuinely undecided voters responded to the debate — a CBS poll afterward showed 42 percent of debate watchers thought Vance won and 41 percent thought Walz did, while 17 percent thought it was a tie. A CNN poll showed 51 percent thought Vance won and 49 percent thought Walz did (CNN didn’t offer the “tie” option).

Scored purely on affect and debating technique — without regard to factual accuracy — Vance did a bit better. He stuck to his two-pronged strategy: first, to blame Kamala Harris for everything voters don’t like that has happened under the Biden administration; and second, to put a reasonable-seeming face on Trumpism.

In doing so, though, Vance said many misleading or totally untrue things, such as that Donald Trump saved Obamacare, that immigrants caused the US housing crisis, and that Trump was merely peacefully discussing “problems” with the 2020 election rather than blatantly trying to steal that election from the rightful winner, Joe Biden.

Walz’s performance was rockier, and while he had his moments — he spoke effectively about health care, abortion, and Trump’s threat to democracy — his answers were less disciplined and more scattershot. He seemed flatfooted by a question regarding his past, reportedly untrue claims to have been in Hong Kong at the time of the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989 – not exactly the most important and pressing issue of the day, but something he probably should have prepared a better answer for.

So, on points, Vance may have won by a nose. But he did so in a way that is unlikely to matter very much, if at all, for the presidential contest. In general, vice presidential debates very rarely impact the polls. And this particular debate lacked any breakout moment likely to dominate headlines for days in what’s become a very crowded October news environment (Middle East escalation, Hurricane Helene, the port strike).

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Harris Outreach to Republicans and Middle America

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

The last night of the Democratic convention features flags, veterans, and Adam Kinzinger.

Parts of Harris's acceptance speech sounded like ... Reagan.

Steve Benen at MSNBC:

When the “Republicans for Harris” rollout began in earnest a month ago, the effort featured some fairly prominent names, including former GOP governors, members of Congress and even Republicans who served on Donald Trump’s White House team. In the days and weeks that followed, the list of Republicans backing the Democratic vice president has continued to grow.

SEE Reagan, Bush, McCain & Romney Alumni for Harris

Neal Rothschild at Axios:

At this month's debate, Harris surprised many by saying that she is a gun owner, and in an interview with Oprah this week said, "If somebody breaks into my house, they're getting shot."Even as she advocates for gun control measures, she used the comments to signal not only that she didn't support confiscating guns, but that she has a personal stake in the Second Amendment.

Zoom out: The comments follow a pattern of Harris and Walz claiming rhetorical turf that has long been held by Republicans.Harris' campaign launch video was centered around "freedom," a pervasive conservative rallying cry for resisting liberal policies on taxation, gun control and government regulation. [ALSO NOTE "THE OPPORTUNITY AGENDA," A CLOSE COUSIN TO GINGRICH'S OPPORTUNITY SOCIETY.]

Harris and Walz are using it to advocate for abortion rights and fight interventionist policies like school book bans and curriculum directives.

Tim Walz's biography — his rural Nebraska upbringing, football coaching experience and everyday dad persona — serve to build up the ticket's Middle America credentials. And his "mind your own damn business" refrain taps into a libertarian sensibility.

...

"Patriotism" was a common refrain at the DNC in August, and "USA" chants rang out from the audience throughout the week.
...

What to watch: Harris is trying to steer Democrats' fortunes amid a political realignment that has seen the party losing favor with working class communities of color and gaining ground among wealthier suburbanites.

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Rumors, Lies, DIsformation

Our 2020 book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Our next book will discuss the 2024 election, including the role of lies and disinformation.

 Kris Maher, Valerie Bauerlein, Tawnell D. Hobbs at WSJ:

City Manager Bryan Heck fielded an unusual question at City Hall on the morning of Sept. 9, from a staff member of Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance. The staffer called to ask if there was any truth to bizarre rumors about Haitian immigrants and pets in Springfield.

“He asked point-blank, ‘Are the rumors true of pets being taken and eaten?’” recalled Heck. “I told him no. There was no verifiable evidence or reports to show this was true. I told them these claims were baseless.”

By then, Vance had already posted about the rumors to his 1.9 million followers on X. Yet he kept the post up, and repeated an even more insistent version of the claim the next morning.

That night, former President Donald Trump stood on a Philadelphia debate stage and shot the rumor into the stratosphere. “In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs,” he said to 67 million viewers. “The people that came in, they’re eating the cats. They’re eating, they’re eating, the pets of the people that live there. And this is what’s happening in this country.”

...

A Vance spokesperson on Tuesday provided The Wall Street Journal with a police report in which a resident had claimed her pet might have been taken by Haitian neighbors. But when a reporter went to Anna Kilgore’s house Tuesday evening, she said her cat Miss Sassy, which went missing in late August, had actually returned a few days later—found safe in her own basement.

Kilgore, wearing a Trump shirt and hat, said she apologized to her Haitian neighbors with the help of her daughter and a mobile-phone translation app.

Clint Watts at Microsoft:

    Russia and Iran have both undertaken cyber influence operations headed into the 2024 presidential election. In our last report, published on August 8, we detailed how Iranian cyber-enabled influence operations sought to undermine the Republican campaign through targeted hack-and-leak operations, covert social media personas, and imposter US news sites. In the past two months, Microsoft has observed a notable shift in Russian influence operations tactics reflecting the changing U.S. political environment. Specifically, we have observed Russia pivot towards targeting the Harris-Walz campaign, with actors disseminating fabricated videos designed to sow discord and spread disinformation about the new Democratic nominee Vice President Harris.

    We discuss this activity in a new report by the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) released today. This update follows other reports we have released around activity by actors advancing the geopolitical goals of Iran and China.

    The shift to focusing on the Harris-Walz campaign reflects a strategic move by Russian actors aimed at exploiting any perceived vulnerabilities in the new candidates. Initially, Russian influence operations struggled to evolve their efforts following President Biden’s departure from the 2024 US presidential race. However, in late August and September, we observed two Russian actors MTAC tracks closely — previously reported as Storm-1516 and Storm-1679 — using videos designed to discredit Harris and stoke controversy around her campaign. Specifically: Storm-1516, identified by news reports as a Kremlin-aligned troll farm, produced and disseminated two inauthentic videos, each generating millions of views. One video depicted an attack by alleged Harris supporters on a supposed Trump rally attendee, while another used an on-screen actor to fabricate false claims about Harris’s involvement in a hit-and-run accident. This second video was laundered through a website masquerading as a local San Francisco media outlet — which was only created days beforehand. Storm-1679, a newer group reportedly aligned with the Kremlin, pivoted its focus from producing content about the 2024 Paris Olympic Games to publishing false videos discrediting Vice President Harris. One of the videos, which was shared on X shortly after it was published to Telegram, depicted a fake New York City billboard advancing false claims about Harris’ policies. The X post received more than 100,000 views in the four hours after it was published on Telegram
  • . 

 

Friday, August 30, 2024

The Harris-Walz Interview: Pivot!

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

In our forthcoming book on the 2024 election, we note that "incumbency" is an ambiguous concept when the challenger was the incumbent just four years earlier and has remained in the public eye ever since.

Mike Allen at Axios:
Vice President Harris said twice during yesterday's interview in Georgia with CNN's Dana Bash that Americans are ready to "turn the page" on the Trump era.Why it matters: It's part of Harris' strategy of portraying herself as the candidate of change, even though she's in the White House — and trying to make former President Trump seem like the exhausting incumbent.

Harris' campaign communications director, Brian Fallon, tweeted while the CNN special was still airing that even after Trump "lost in 2020, he never left the stage — he tried to overturn the election and began running again immediately. America is exhausted with him."

Harris, joined by running mate Tim Walz for her first formal interview since President Biden bowed out, rejected identity politics when asked about Trump's comments about her racial identity."Same old, tired playbook," Harris said. "Next question, please."

Bash followed up: "That's it?"Harris replied: "That's it."

Trump, on his Truth Social platform, called the interview: "BORING!!!"

She need not talk about identity politics. As soon as the camera is on, viewers can see that she is a Black woman. 

Kevin Liptak at CNN:

Pressed by Bash on her reversals on fracking and decriminalizing illegal border crossings, Harris sought to explain why her positions had changed.

“How should voters look at some of the changes that you’ve made?” Bash asked Harris. “Is it because you have more experience now and you’ve learned more about the information? Is it because you were running for president in a Democratic primary? And should they feel comfortable and confident that what you’re saying now is going to be your policy moving forward?”
Harris said despite the shifts in position, her values had not changed.

“I think the most important and most significant aspect of my policy perspective and decisions is my values have not changed,” she said. “You mentioned the Green New Deal. I have always believed – and I have worked on it – that the climate crisis is real, that it is an urgent matter to which we should apply metrics that include holding ourselves to deadlines around time.”
...
And she pointed to her record as California attorney general, when she prosecuted gangs accused of cross border trafficking, as an indication of her values on immigration.

Note that she did not directly answer Bash's question.  Instead of explaining why she changed her position, she pivoted to her underlying values and her record. 

Likewise, Walz pivoted when Bash asked about his inaccurate statements about his military record. Kierra Frazier at Politico:

CNN’s Dana Bash asked Walz about remarks in 2018, when he was running for Congress, and he said he “carried a weapon of war in war” as he discussed his support for restricting assault weapons.

Walz, who served 24 years in the National Guard but was not in combat, says he misspoke — chalking it up to garbling some words.

“My grammar is not always correct,” he said.

The Republican criticism was part of a broader effort to tarnish Walz soon after he emerged as Harris’ running mate. But the effect of the accusation has been muted, in part because former President Donald Trump made well-known efforts to dodge military service, and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, served four years in the Marine Corps and was deployed to Iraq but did not have combat experience.

Walz said in the CNN interview that his military record “speaks for itself” as he dismissed the criticism.

“I’m incredibly proud I’ve done 24 years of wearing the uniform of this country, equally proud of my service in a public school classroom, whether it’s Congress or the governor,” he said. “My record speaks for itself. I speak candidly. I wear my emotions on my sleeves, and I speak especially passionately about our children being shot in schools and around guns.”

Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Vance and Walz

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawalKamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.  She just chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. It is the first time since 1980 that a Democratic nominee has chosen a Midwesterner.
Tim Walz and JD Vance have vaulted themselves out of national obscurity as they hustle to introduce themselves to the country, but the senator from Ohio has had a rockier start than the Minnesota governor.

A poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that Walz had a smoother launch as a running mate to Vice President Kamala Harris than Vance did for former President Donald Trump. About one-third of U.S. adults (36%) have a favorable view of Walz, who will introduce himself to his party when he speaks at the Democratic National Convention on Wednesday. About one-quarter (27%) have a positive opinion of Vance. Significantly more adults also have an unfavorable view of Vance than Walz, 44% to 25%.

Kadia Goba and Benjy Sarlin at Semafor:

But Walz has also faced a non-stop barrage of attacks from Republicans in the same period, led by Vance, that have drawn significant coverage. The Harris campaign had to acknowledge he misspoke years earlier about carrying weapons “in war,” which was part of a broader suite of attacks aimed at his military record, and he’s faced additional scrutiny over his 2006 campaign’s handling of an old DUI arrest. Republicans have also attacked his record as governor, especially his support for LGBTQ protections and handling of the 2020 riots in Minneapolis after George Floyd’s murder.

In short, Walz is getting good and bad press simultaneously: The survey found most voters have heard about his 20 years of a teacher, heard about (and admire) his 24 years in the Army National Guard, but also had heard that he retired before his unit deployed to Iraq, a prominent attack from Vance.

Blueprint tested several rebuttals to some of the most common criticisms of Walz and found the most effective response in each case was to quickly pivot to attacking Republicans for trying to distract from other campaign issues.

Margaret Talev at Axios:

Vice President Kamala Harris is getting a bigger boost from picking Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate than former President Trump has gotten from Ohio Sen. JD Vance, according to two new polls.

Why it matters: Running mates don't usually determine presidential elections, but this race has enough twists to test that norm.Vance and Walz, military veterans from Midwestern states who emphasize their understanding of the working class, both were tapped with an eye for their potential to balance the more coastal, elite reputations of their running mates.

The big picture: Walz outperformed Vance on a range of authenticity and compassion questions — including who better understands small-town Americans' concerns — in a new Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll.A new Syracuse University-Ipsos poll, meanwhile, shows that Americans believe Harris' odds of winning have improved more with her selection of Walz than Trump's have improved with Vance on the ticket.
Two in three voters in the Axios Vibes survey said the vice presidential candidate is important to their vote this year. But there's a partisan gap, with 81% of Democratic voters and just 59% of Republicans saying it's important.

By the numbers: In the Axios Vibes survey, Walz outperformed Vance on four measures:"Has an authentic connection to everyday Americans" (43% to 35% overall ... 36% to 29% with independents).
  • "Understands the challenges in your community" (39% to 33% overall ... 32% to 27% with independents).
  • "Understands the issues affecting rural and small-town America" (41% to 35% overall ... 35% to 29% with independents).
  • "Feels and talks like someone from a small town" (39% to 34% overall ... 35% to 27% with independents).
Vance more than Walz was seen as supporting policies benefiting wealthy people in big cities (41% to 29% overall ... 37% to 22% with independents) and being more worried about himself than constituents (41% to 33% overall ... 37% to 25% with independents).

 

Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Dem Leftists W and L

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

Perry Bacon Jr. at WP:

Tuesday morning, progressives were delighted with Vice President Kamala Harris’s decision to pick Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz is a fairly traditional Democrat, nowhere near as left-wing as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York or independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. But many progressives were pushing for Walz instead of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who has taken more conservative stands on many issues and been very critical of campus protests of Israel’s military actions in Gaza.

It’s not clear exactly why Harris chose Walz over Shapiro. (Her aides have suggested that Harris and the Minnesota governor developed a strong personal connection and that the vice president liked Walz’s background as a high school teacher and veteran.) But she also likely wanted to avoid irritating the party’s left wing by picking Shapiro. So although the left didn’t get one of its champions on the ticket, it exercised something of a veto. That’s progressive power.

But Tuesday night, Rep. Cori Bush of Missouri, one of the most progressive members of the House, was defeated in a primary. She is the second member of the group that used to refer to itself as “the Squad” to lose their seat this year.

Like New York’s Jamaal Bowman, who lost in June, Bush faced an opponent backed by the pro-Israel group AIPAC, which pumped millions of dollars into the race to boost its preferred candidate. The victories by New York’s George Latimer and Missouri’s Wesley Bell were major wins for AIPAC and centrist groups who want to diminish progressives’ influence within the Democratic Party.


Tuesday, August 6, 2024

Harris Picks Walz

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawalKamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.  She just chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. It is the first time since 1980 that a Democratic nominee has chosen a Midwesterner.

Aaron Blake at WP:
While Shapiro and Cooper had the most impressive electoral records — and Kelly has won a swing state twice in four years — Walz has some attributes to point to.

He won the governorship by 12 points in 2018 in a good election for Democrats, two years after then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won the state by just 1.5 points. And in his 2022 reelection race, with Democrats facing tougher winds, he matched Biden’s seven-point victory from two years earlier.

Walz did better in the rural areas of the state in his 2018 race, while he relied more on the Twin Cities and areas around Duluth, Fargo-Moorhead and Rochester in 2022. He still carried some counties he had represented in southern Minnesota.

But perhaps the more optimistic case for Walz is how he did before that — in his campaigns for Congress.

He was first elected in 2006 in a southern Minnesota district that then-Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry had lost by four points, carrying the district by six. By 2016, Walz narrowly won reelection even as Trump was carrying the district by 15 points.

Harris has at the very least picked a running mate with a better electoral record than Trump’s running mate. Vance won his Senate seat in 2022, but he underperformed every other major statewide Republican in Ohio — often by a lot. Walz, by contrast, has generally overperformed his party’s expected share of the vote.

For now, Walz is little known on the national stage. A Marist College poll released Tuesday morning showed 17 percent of registered voters viewed him favorably, 13 percent viewed him unfavorably, and 70 percent offered no opinion.

 Notable tidbits about Walz’s selection
  1. There are a few other ways in which Walz stands out as a VP pick:
  2. He would be just the fourth governor to ascend to that role since the Great Depression.
  3. He’s the first Democratic VP pick since 1964 who didn’t go to law school.
  4. It’s the second consecutive Democratic ticket (after Biden-Harris in 2020) to not feature anyone with an Ivy League degree — which hadn’t happened since 1984. (Walz attended little-known Chadron State College in Nebraska and got his master’s degree from Minnesota State University at Mankato. Harris attended Howard University and got her law degree from the University of California College of Law.) Trump and Vance are both Ivy League-educated.
  5. Were Walz to be elected, Minnesota will have provided three of the 13 most recent vice presidents — after Hubert Humphrey and Mondale.