EPIC JOURNEY

This blog continues the discussion we began with Epic Journey: The 2008 Elections and American Politics (Rowman and Littlefield, 2009).The next book in this series is The Comeback: the 2024 Elections and American Politics (Bloomsbury, 2025).

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Showing posts with label Guns. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Guns. Show all posts

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Harris Outreach to Republicans and Middle America

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

The last night of the Democratic convention features flags, veterans, and Adam Kinzinger.

Parts of Harris's acceptance speech sounded like ... Reagan.

Steve Benen at MSNBC:

When the “Republicans for Harris” rollout began in earnest a month ago, the effort featured some fairly prominent names, including former GOP governors, members of Congress and even Republicans who served on Donald Trump’s White House team. In the days and weeks that followed, the list of Republicans backing the Democratic vice president has continued to grow.

SEE Reagan, Bush, McCain & Romney Alumni for Harris

Neal Rothschild at Axios:

At this month's debate, Harris surprised many by saying that she is a gun owner, and in an interview with Oprah this week said, "If somebody breaks into my house, they're getting shot."Even as she advocates for gun control measures, she used the comments to signal not only that she didn't support confiscating guns, but that she has a personal stake in the Second Amendment.

Zoom out: The comments follow a pattern of Harris and Walz claiming rhetorical turf that has long been held by Republicans.Harris' campaign launch video was centered around "freedom," a pervasive conservative rallying cry for resisting liberal policies on taxation, gun control and government regulation. [ALSO NOTE "THE OPPORTUNITY AGENDA," A CLOSE COUSIN TO GINGRICH'S OPPORTUNITY SOCIETY.]

Harris and Walz are using it to advocate for abortion rights and fight interventionist policies like school book bans and curriculum directives.

Tim Walz's biography — his rural Nebraska upbringing, football coaching experience and everyday dad persona — serve to build up the ticket's Middle America credentials. And his "mind your own damn business" refrain taps into a libertarian sensibility.

...

"Patriotism" was a common refrain at the DNC in August, and "USA" chants rang out from the audience throughout the week.
...

What to watch: Harris is trying to steer Democrats' fortunes amid a political realignment that has seen the party losing favor with working class communities of color and gaining ground among wealthier suburbanites.
Posted by Pitney at 6:16 AM
Labels: government, Guns, Kamala Harris, patriotism, political science, Politics, Reagan, rural, Walz

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Harris Pitches to Republicans and Leaners

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

So far, the debates have severely disadvantaged Trump.  The first one knocked Biden out of the race, leading to the nomination of a far stronger opponent.  The second one showcased her strengths and his weaknesses.  He can still win, but it is not the race that he wanted.


 Leigh Ann Caldwell and Theodoric Meyer at WP:
It was clear in the debate that Vice President Kamala Harris’s goal was to get under Donald Trump’s skin. But less obvious were the ways in which she was trying to appeal to independent and disenchanted Republican voters.

“I pledge to you to be a president for all Americans,” Harris said less than five minutes into the debate. Later on, she noted she had the endorsement of 200 Republicans, which includes former vice president Dick Cheney and his daughter, former congresswoman Liz Cheney.

It’s an appeal-to-the-middle approach that emerged during the Democratic convention when Republicans spoke in support of Harris on the convention floor and she appealed to national security and democracy-minded conservatives, and it mirrors her campaign’s efforts to get independent and centrist voters on board.

Harris’s debate strategy wasn’t missed by some of the most prominent never-Trumpers.

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who voted twice to impeach Trump and said he will not vote for Trump in November, took notice. He praised Harris’s debate performance, telling reporters that people saw an “intelligent, capable person.”

...

She walked back more liberal stances taken during the Democratic presidential primary in 2020, like her opposition to fracking and support for single-payer health care.

When Trump accused her of wanting to confiscate all guns, she said, “We’re not taking anybody’s guns away, so stop with the continuous lying about this stuff,” and added that she and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, “are both gun owners.”

Marin Cogan at Vox:

While the remark caught attention online, it wasn’t actually news. Harris had spoken about being a gun owner during her last campaign for president. “I am a gun owner, and I own a gun for probably the reason a lot of people do — for personal safety,” Harris told reporters after a campaign event in 2019.

At the time, Harris pointed to her career as a prosecutor by way of explanation. It’s not unusual for people who work in law enforcement, from parole officers to police to chief law enforcement officers, to own a gun out of concern that someone they’ve encountered in the legal system might try to exact revenge — as has happened before. The surprise is almost certainly for another reason altogether: Harris is a multiracial woman from a liberal state who has called for banning assault weapons and passing universal background checks.

From her acceptance speech:

And let me say, I know there are people of various political views watching tonight, and I want you to know I promise to be a president for all Americans. [Applause.] You can always trust me to put country above party and self; to hold sacred America's fundamental principles, from the rule of law to free and fair elections to the peaceful transfer of power. [Applause.]
.
....
And I'll tell you, this is personal for me. The middle class is where I come from. My mother kept a strict budget. We lived within our means, yet we wanted for little. And she expected us to make the most of the opportunities that were available to us and to be grateful for them, because, as she taught us, opportunity is not available to everyone.

That's why we will create what I call an opportunity economy — an opportunity economy where everyone has the chance to compete and a chance to succeed — [applause] — whether you live in a rural area, small town, or big city.

...

We will provide access to capital for small-business owners and entrepreneurs and founders.

...

 And let me be clear. And let me be clear. After decades in law enforcement, I know the importance of safety and security, especially at our border.


Last year, Joe and I brought together Democrats and conservative Republicans to write the strongest border bill in decades. The Border Patrol endorsed it. But Donald Trump believes a border deal would hurt his campaign, so he ordered his allies in Congress to kill the deal.

The Vice President: Well, I refuse to play politics with our security, and here is my pledge to you. As president, I will bring back the bipartisan border security bill that he killed, and I will sign it into law. [Applause.]

...

As vice president, I have confronted threats to our security, negotiated with foreign leaders, strengthened our alliances, and engaged with our brave troops overseas. [Applause.]

As commander in chief, I will ensure America always has the strongest, most lethal fighting force in the world. [Applause.] And I will fulfill our sacred obligation to care for our troops and their families, and I will always honor and never disparage their service and their sacrifice. [Applause.]

Audience: USA! USA! USA!


The Vice President: I will make sure that we lead the world into the future on space and artificial intelligence; that America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century; and that we strengthen, not abdicate, our global leadership.

Trump, on the other hand, threatened to abandon NATO. He encouraged Putin to invade our allies. Said Russia could, quote, "do whatever the hell they want."

Audience: Booo --

The Vice President: Five days before Russia attacked Ukraine, I met with President Zelenskyy to warn him about Russia's plan to invade. I helped mobilize a global response — over 50 countries — to defend against Putin's aggression. [Applause.] And as president, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO Allies. [Applause.]

 




Posted by Pitney at 6:00 AM
Labels: debate, government, Guns, Kamala Harris, political science, Politics, Republican, Romney

Friday, September 6, 2024

Facts of Life and Death

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.  And neither is the selection of J.D. Vance as its vice presidential candidate.  (Dem oppo folks are doing well.)

Rebecca Falconer at Axios:

Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) made clear in comments Thursday they have very different ideas in how to respond to gun violence in the wake of the Apalachee High School shooting that killed four people and injured nine others.

Driving the news: A CNN reporter asked Vance at a Phoenix, Arizona, event what his policies were on ending school shootings after this week's massacre, which saw a 14-year-old student charged with four counts of felony murder and his father facing charges including second-degree murder.Former President Trump's running mate said it was an "awful tragedy" and called for the bolstering of security in schools.
"If these psychos are going to go after our kids, we've got to be prepared for it," Vance said. "We don't have to like the reality that we live in, but it is the reality we live in. We've got to deal with it," he added.
"I don't like that this is a fact of life, but if you are a psycho and you want to make headlines, you realize that our schools are soft targets. And we have got to bolster security at our schools. We've got to bolster security so if a psycho wants to walk through the front door and kill a bunch of children, they're not able."

Meanwhile, Trump responded to a question from Fox News host Sean Hannity about the Georgia shooting during a Fox News town hall on Wednesday by saying: "It's a sick and angry world for a lot of reasons and we're going to make it better, and we're going to heal our world."

What they're saying "School shootings are not just a fact of life," Harris wrote on social media Thursday evening. "It doesn't have to be this way. We can take action to protect our children — and we will."
Posted by Pitney at 4:37 AM
Labels: crime, gaffe, government, Guns, political science, Politics, Vance

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Divisive GOP House Primaries

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

Bridget Bowman reports at NBC
Former President Donald Trump endorsed the primary challenger taking on House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good, R-Va., saying the congressman "turned his back on our incredible movement."

Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social on Tuesday morning that he is endorsing state Sen. John McGuire, who is challenging Good in a June 18 primary. Trump made a veiled reference to Good's being one of the few members of Congress who endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the presidential primary, writing that Good "was constantly attacking and fighting me until recently."

Good endorsed Trump back in January, but the former president wrote that it was "too late."

"The damage had been done!" Trump added. "I just want to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, and the person that can most help me do that is Navy Seal and highly respected State Legislator, John McGuire, a true American Hero."

Josh Peck at Texas Public Radio:
Republican Congressman Tony Gonzales defeated a primary challenge from gun YouTuber Brandon Herrera in Tuesday’s runoff election.

The incumbent's March primary opponents forced him into a runoff with Herrera after Gonzales failed to earn support from a majority of voters.

By 10:30 p.m. Tuesday, Gonzales had 51.06% of the vote to Herrera's 48.94% — a difference of just over 500 votes.

The Texas 23rd Congressional District, which Gonzales represents, stretches from just east of El Paso to western Bexar County. It includes large swaths of the border and the town of Uvalde, where the 2022 Robb Elementary School shooting took place.

Gonzales’ primary challengers went after him for his vote in support of gun control measures in Congress in the aftermath of the school shooting that left 19 children and two teachers dead.

The runoff election occurred just days after the Uvalde community marked two years since the shooting.

Gonzales’ gun control vote, along with several other votes on issues like support for gay and interracial marriage, led the Texas GOP to censure Gonzales in 2023.

Herrera, who had never held political office before, has 3.4 million subscribers on YouTube, where he primarily uses and promotes firearms and is known as “The AK Guy.”

Many of his videos are controversial, including one from 2022 where he uses a gun associated with Nazi Germany, goose-steps to a popular Nazi marching song, and refers to the gun as “the original ghetto blaster” and “Hitler’s street sweeper.”

Later in the video, he says he’s “not really a big fan of fascism” and explains that his comments throughout the video are “really f— up jokes.”

Florida Republican congressman and fierce Trump loyalist Matt Gaetz campaigned to support Herrera’s primary challenge to Gonzales.

Gonzales outraised Herrera by four-to-one, receiving more than $4 million from supporters.
Posted by Pitney at 5:59 AM
Labels: congressional elections, DeSantis, Gaetz, government, Guns, nazi, political science, Politics, primaries, Texas, Virginia, YouTube

Friday, July 28, 2023

The Zoomer Trump Effect

Our more recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses voter demographics .

Greg Sargent at WP:
New data supplied to me by the Harvard Youth Poll sheds light on the powerful undercurrents driving these developments. Young voters have shifted in a markedly progressive direction on multiple issues that are deeply important to them: Climate change, gun violence, economic inequality and LGBTQ+ rights.

John Della Volpe, director of the poll, refers to those issues as the “big four.” They all speak to the sense of precarity that young voters feel about their physical safety, their economic future, their basic rights and even the ecological stability of the planet.

“This generation has never felt secure — personally, physically, financially,” Della Volpe told me.

Here’s a chart showing how opinion among 18-to-29-year-olds has shifted on those issues, according to data that the Harvard Youth Poll crunched at my request:

Those numbers — which come from the Harvard Youth Poll of 18-to-29-year-olds released each spring — all suggest that today’s young voters are substantially more progressive on these issues than young voters were even five or 10 years ago. Sizable majorities now reject the idea that same-sex relationships are morally wrong (53 percent), support stricter gun laws (63 percent) and want government to provide basic necessities (62 percent).

They are not enthusiastic about Biden. 

Yet national developments could continue exerting a powerful pull on these voters. For example, the chart above suggests that Trump’s rise to the presidency might have accelerated their progressive evolution. The former president continues looming over our politics and will likely be the GOP nominee.

“That data clearly shows a Zoomer Trump effect,” Della Volpe, the author of a book about Gen Z, told me. “Every single variable has gotten more progressive.
”
Posted by Pitney at 4:48 PM
Labels: Abortion, government, Guns, inequality, LGBTQ, political science, Politics, Public Opinion, youth

Saturday, April 8, 2023

Tennessee Backfire

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.  The GOP has supermajorities in the TN Legislature.

Elizabeth Wolfe and Raja Razek, CNN:

Two Democratic members of the Tennessee House of Representatives were expelled while a third member was spared in an ousting by Republican lawmakers that was decried by the trio as oppressive, vindictive and racially motivated.

Protesters packed the state Capitol on Thursday to denounce the expulsions of Reps. Justin Jones and Rep. Justin Pearson and to advocate for gun reform measures a little over a week after a mass shooting devastated a Nashville school.

 

Rep. Gloria Johnson on why she survived while two of her colleagues were expelled from the Tennessee House: "Well, I think it's pretty clear. I'm a 60-year-old white woman and they are two young Black men." pic.twitter.com/6dNbW9dOHz

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 7, 2023
Steve Benen at MSNBC:
Stepping back, if GOP leaders don’t yet fully appreciate the degree to which this is likely to backfire, this will probably dawn on them soon.

For one thing, over the course of this week, the story about the Tennessee Three made the transition from local controversy in Nashville to a national outrage. As the dust settled on yesterday’s developments, for example, the White House issued a statement condemning the expulsions.

“Today’s expulsion of lawmakers who engaged in peaceful protest is shocking, undemocratic, and without precedent,” President Joe Biden said. “Rather than debating the merits of the issue, these Republican lawmakers have chosen to punish, silence, and expel duly-elected representatives of the people of Tennessee.”

He wasn’t alone. There were related condemnations from the Congressional Black Caucus, among other congressional Democrats from both chambers. Barack Obama added a statement of his own.

The Republican majority in Nashville, in other words, set out to silence the Tennessee Three. In the process, the GOP helped make the Democrats heroes to a worthy cause.

What’s more, if Republicans think they “won” the broader fight by kicking Jones and Pearson out of the legislature, they’ll soon learn otherwise: There’s nothing stopping the two men from running anew for the seats they held. In fact, it’s a safe bet they’re going to win, rejoining the institution that unjustly expelled them.

They may not even have to wait too long: Local officials have the authority to appoint temporary legislators to fill the vacancies, and no one should be surprised if they choose Jones and Pearson.
Posted by Pitney at 6:38 AM
Labels: government, Guns, political science, Politics, Race, state legislatures, tennessee

Tuesday, March 28, 2023

Andy Ogles and the Nashville Massacre

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good -- as every new mass shooting reminds us.  Charlie Sykes:

Let me also introduce you to Andy Ogles, the congressman who represents the district where the Covenant School is located

Yesterday, Ogles said in a statement that he and his family “are devastated by the tragedy that took place at The Covenant School in Nashville this morning.”

“We are sending our thoughts and prayers to the families of those lost,” he said. “As a father of three, I am utterly heartbroken by this senseless act of violence. I am closely monitoring the situation and working with local officials.”

This Andy Ogles, who put out this Christmas card:
Image


“MERRY CHRISTMAS!” he wrote, followed by a fake quote attributed to George Washington: “The very atmosphere of firearms anywhere and everywhere restrains evil interference — they deserve a place of honor with all that’s good.”

This Andy Ogles: “Businessman, economist, cop, international sex crimes expert? The stories of Congressman Andy Ogles.”
Posted by Pitney at 9:41 AM
Labels: crime, government, Guns, House of Representatives, political science, Politics, Republican, tennessee

Sunday, November 27, 2022

Armed Protest

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.  The January 6 insurrection was not the only case of armed protest.

At NYT, Mike McIntire reports that protesters are increasingly bringing firearms:
This month, armed protesters appeared outside an elections center in Phoenix, hurling baseless accusations that the election for governor had been stolen from the Republican, Kari Lake. In October, Proud Boys with guns joined a rally in Nashville where conservative lawmakers spoke against transgender medical treatments for minors.

In June, armed demonstrations around the United States amounted to nearly one a day. A group led by a former Republican state legislator protested a gay pride event in a public park in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho. Men with guns interrupted a Juneteenth festival in Franklin, Tenn., handing out fliers claiming that white people were being replaced. Among the others were rallies in support of gun rights in Delaware and abortion rights in Georgia.

Whether at the local library, in a park or on Main Street, most of these incidents happen where Republicans have fought to expand the ability to bear arms in public, a movement bolstered by a recent Supreme Court ruling on the right to carry firearms outside the home. The loosening of limits has occurred as violent political rhetoric rises and the police in some places fear bloodshed among an armed populace on a hair trigger.

But the effects of more guns in public spaces have not been evenly felt. A partisan divide — with Democrats largely eschewing firearms and Republicans embracing them — has warped civic discourse. Deploying the Second Amendment in service of the First has become a way to buttress a policy argument, a sort of silent, if intimidating, bullhorn.

...

A New York Times analysis of more than 700 armed demonstrations found that, at about 77 percent of them, people openly carrying guns represented right-wing views, such as opposition to L.G.B.T.Q. rights and abortion access, hostility to racial justice rallies and support for former President Donald J. Trump’s lie of winning the 2020 election.

In 2018,  Joanne Freeman wrote of the antebellum Congress:

More often than not, such bullies were Southerners or Southern-born Westerners. So-called fighting men promoted their interests and silenced their foes with insults, fists, canes, knives, pistols and the occasional brick, giving them a literal fighting advantage over “noncombatants,” who were usually Northerners. Sumner’s brutal caning was far from the only violent incident in Congress.

 

Posted by Pitney at 7:50 AM
Labels: government, Guns, Polarization, political science, Politics, protest, Trump, violence

Wednesday, July 6, 2022

Greitens, Back with Violence

 Our recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties.  The GOP has a violence problem. 

Just two days after a MAGA lunatic murdered at least seven people in Highland Park, Illinois, Eric Greitens has another ad promoting the killing of political opponents.




US Senate candidate Eric Greitens is back with another ad shooting and blowing things up with his “army of patriots.” pic.twitter.com/5pwvq6PQUz

— Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦 (@RonFilipkowski) July 6, 2022

I have known @EricGreitens for 30 years. He is a broken man, who will do anything, including inciting violence, to regain power. He’s not the same person whose weddings I went to. Eric, drop out. Try to repair the damage you have done, to your family, your country, and yourself. pic.twitter.com/TA8DxzzSOF

— Ken Harbaugh (@Team_Harbaugh) July 6, 2022
Posted by Pitney at 10:58 AM
Labels: government, Greitens, Guns, Missouri, political science, Politics, Republican, violence

Tuesday, June 28, 2022

Trump Knew the Insurrectionists Were Armed

Our book, Divided We Stand, looks at the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection. Some Republican leaders -- and a measurable number of rank-and-file voters -- are open to violent rebellion, coups, and secession. Trump and his henchmen were involved in violent intimidation.

 Sebastian Murdock at HuffPo:

Former President Donald Trump knew his supporters were armed with weapons the day of the Jan 6, 2021, Capitol attack, but insisted they be allowed to watch him speak before the riot.

“I heard the president say something to the effect of, ‘I don’t f-ing care that they have weapons. They’re not here to hurt me. Take the f-ing mags [metal detectors] away. Let my people in. They can march to the Capitol from here,’” said Cassidy Hutchinson, who was an aide to former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows.

The new explosive testimony was aired during a surprise hearing on Tuesday. Hutchinson recalled that Trump had been informed by Secret Service that his supporters had brought weapons to his rally shortly before the attack on the Capitol. Those weapons included bear spray, spears, guns and flagpoles used as weapons.

Trump, however, was apparently fixated on the crowd size and demanded more of his supporters be allowed to bypass metal detectors to watch him speak, Hutchinson testified.

“He was furious because he wanted the arena we had at the ellipse to be maxed out to capacity,” Hutchinson said of Trump’s demeanor.
Following Trump’s rally, hundreds of his supporters stormed the Capitol. Five people died and more than 140 officers were injured.
Posted by Pitney at 5:08 PM
Labels: government, Guns, insurrection, political science, Politics, Trump, violence

Saturday, June 4, 2022

The Guns of Springtime

Our 2020 book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties.Republican elected officials oppose gun control.  Although their position is at odds with general public opinion, few if any will suffer any political damage from it.  Indeed, they can suffer when they take the other side.

Nicholas Fandos and Jesse McKinley at NYT:

In the wake of deadly mass shootings in Buffalo and Uvalde, Texas, Representative Chris Jacobs of New York, a congressman serving his first full term in the House, stunned fellow Republicans by embracing a federal assault weapons ban and limits on high-capacity magazines.

Speaking from his suburban Buffalo district a week ago, about 10 miles from the grocery store where 10 Black residents were slaughtered, Mr. Jacobs framed his risky break from bedrock Republican orthodoxy as bigger than politics: “I can’t in good conscience sit back and say I didn’t try to do something,” he said.

It took only seven days for political forces to catch up with him.

On Friday, facing intense backlash from party leaders, a potential primary from the state party chairman and a forceful dressing down from Donald Trump Jr., Mr. Jacobs announced that he would abandon his re-election campaign.

“We have a problem in our country in terms of both our major parties. If you stray from a party position, you are annihilated,” Mr. Jacobs said. “For the Republicans, it became pretty apparent to me over the last week that that issue is gun control. Any gun control.”


 


 

Rep. Steube brandishes multiple guns during a hearing on gun violence pic.twitter.com/bMUDCBFjz7

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) June 2, 2022
Posted by Pitney at 6:41 AM
Labels: government, Guns, House of Representatives, New York, political science, Politics, Republican

Saturday, May 28, 2022

"Let's Go Brandon" Firearms

 Our 2020 book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses how polarization has affected American life.



The gun is sold by Auto Ordinance and is described as paying tribute to Trump and his MAGA rallies.

The flyer highlights the anti-Joe Biden “Let’s Go Brandon” messaging. pic.twitter.com/KYGlSPujQO

— PatriotTakes 🇺🇸 (@patriottakes) May 28, 2022
Posted by Pitney at 8:01 AM
Labels: Biden, government, Guns, political science, Politics, Trump

Thursday, May 26, 2022

Public Opinion on Guns

Our 2020 book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties.Republican elected officials oppose gun control.  Although their position is at odds with general public opinion, few if any will suffer any political damage from it.

Eli Yokley at Morning Consult:

  • According to the Wednesday survey, 65% of voters favor stricter gun control laws in the United States, up from 60% in a survey conducted after a May 14 mass shooting in Buffalo, N.Y. It marks a similar level of support for gun restrictions as measured in a survey following the 2018 mass shooting at a high school in Parkland, Fla.
  • Since last week’s survey, the share of Republicans in favor of tougher gun laws increased from 37% to 44%, mirroring a level of support that had been fairly steady during Donald Trump’s presidency but declined after President Joe Biden took office last year.
  • Two in 3 independent voters said they want stronger gun laws, up 10 percentage points from the post-Buffalo shooting survey.
...

Although the survey was conducted just one day after the Tuesday shooting, which took the lives of 19 elementary school students and two teachers, the event had near-immediate salience with the public: 52% of voters said they had seen, read or heard “a lot” about the massacre at Robb Elementary School, along with another 36% who heard some about it.

Harry Enten at CNN:

Indeed, most Republicans feel no pressure to act on gun control because voters are as likely to trust them on the issue of guns as they are to trust Democrats. A Pew Research Center poll from earlier this year showed that 38% of Americans agreed with Republicans on gun policy compared with 37% who agreed with Democrats, a finding within the margin of error and one that has been consistent in polling.

At the same time, polling from CNN/SSRS from earlier this year found that the enthusiasm on the gun issue was, if anywhere, on the Republicans’ side. Forty-five percent of voters who lean Republican said gun policy was extremely important to their 2022 congressional vote, while 40% of voters who lean Democratic said the same. Those who said gun policy was one of their top issues were more likely to have backed Donald Trump in 2020 than Joe Biden. 

Blake Hounshell at NYT:

Three days.

That’s how long it takes before the public’s anger begins to dissipate after a mass shooting, according to two scholars at Princeton University. It’s now over 24 hours after an 18-year-old gunman slaughtered 19 schoolchildren and two teachers in Uvalde, Texas, and the national conversation over what to do next has already fallen into a familiar pattern.

Democrats are demanding action. Republicans are trying to change the subject. And time is running out before the country’s attention inevitably turns elsewhere.

For a paper published last year in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Patrick Sharkey and Yinzhi Shen of Princeton examined Gallup surveys of Americans’ self-reported emotions in the days before and after a mass shooting
Posted by Pitney at 8:05 AM
Labels: crime, government, Guns, Polarization, political science, Politics, Public Opinion, violence

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Gen Z Rejects GOP

 In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020.

Mike Allen at Axios:

Gen Xers have always been a swing voting group, but their kids — Gen Z, sometimes called Zoomers — overwhelmingly back Democrats.

What they're saying: "Generational replacement will not be kind to Trump’s Republican Party," John Della Volpe, polling director at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, and CEO of SocialSphere, told me.

Della Volpe will be out tomorrow with "Fight: How Gen Z Is Channeling Their Fear and Passion to Save America," digging into the mindset of these 70 million young Americans born beginning in the mid-1990s.
"They are the most diverse and most educated generation in history," Della Volpe writes.
The big picture: Della Volpe says five events shaped this rising bloc:
  • Occupy Wall Street: Millennial-led discussions about inequality became political drivers as Zoomers came of age.
  • Donald Trump.
  • The Parkland, Fla., high school shooting and March for Our Lives movement.
  • 17-year-old Darnella Frazier's use of her iPhone to record the murder of George Floyd.
  • Greta Thunberg's climate strike.

Posted by Pitney at 9:21 AM
Labels: climate change, Guns, party identification, police, Public Opinion, Trump, youth

Friday, January 14, 2022

Seditious Conspiracy

Our book, Divided We Stand, looks at the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection.  Some Republican leaders -- and a measurable number of rank-and-file voters -- are open to violent rebellion, coups, and secession.  

A January 13 release from the Department of Justice:
A federal grand jury in the District of Columbia returned an indictment yesterday, which was unsealed today, charging 11 defendants with seditious conspiracy and other charges for crimes related to the breach of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, which disrupted a joint session of the U.S. Congress that was in the process of ascertaining and counting the electoral votes related to the presidential election.

According to court documents, Elmer Stewart Rhodes III, 56, of Granbury, Texas, who is the founder and leader of the Oath Keepers; and Edward Vallejo, 63, of Phoenix, Arizona, are being charged for the first time in connection with events leading up to and including Jan. 6. Rhodes was arrested this morning in Little Elm, Texas, and Vallejo was arrested this morning in Phoenix.

...

As alleged in the indictments, the Oath Keepers are a large but loosely organized collection of individuals, some of whom are associated with militias. Though the Oath Keepers will accept anyone as members, they explicitly focus on recruiting current and former military, law enforcement and first-responder personnel. Members and affiliates of the Oath Keepers were among the individuals and groups who forcibly entered the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

The seditious conspiracy indictment alleges that, following the Nov. 3, 2020, presidential election, Rhodes conspired with his co-defendants and others to oppose by force the execution of the laws governing the transfer of presidential power by Jan. 20, 2021. Beginning in late December 2020, via encrypted and private communications applications, Rhodes and various co-conspirators coordinated and planned to travel to Washington, D.C., on or around Jan. 6, 2021, the date of the certification of the electoral college vote, the indictment alleges. Rhodes and several co-conspirators made plans to bring weapons to the area to support the operation. The co-conspirators then traveled across the country to the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area in early January 2021.

According to the seditious conspiracy indictment, the defendants conspired through a variety of manners and means, including: organizing into teams that were prepared and willing to use force and to transport firearms and ammunition into Washington, D.C.; recruiting members and affiliates to participate in the conspiracy; organizing trainings to teach and learn paramilitary combat tactics; bringing and contributing paramilitary gear, weapons and supplies – including knives, batons, camouflaged combat uniforms, tactical vests with plates, helmets, eye protection and radio equipment – to the Capitol grounds; breaching and attempting to take control of the Capitol grounds and building on Jan. 6, 2021, in an effort to prevent, hinder and delay the certification of the electoral college vote; using force against law enforcement officers while inside the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021; continuing to plot, after Jan. 6, 2021, to oppose by force the lawful transfer of presidential power, and using websites, social media, text messaging and encrypted messaging applications to communicate with co-conspirators and others.

On Jan. 6, 2021, a large crowd began to gather outside the Capitol perimeter as the Joint Session of Congress got under way at 1 p.m. Crowd members eventually forced their way through, up and over U.S. Capitol Police barricades and advanced to the building’s exterior façade. Shortly after 2 p.m., crowd members forced entry into the Capitol by breaking windows, ramming open doors, and assaulting Capitol police and other law enforcement officers. At about this time, according to the indictment, Rhodes entered the restricted area of the Capitol grounds and directed his followers to meet him at the Capitol.

At approximately 2:30 p.m., as detailed in the indictment, Hackett, Harrelson, Meggs, Moerschel and Watkins, and other Oath Keepers and affiliates – many wearing paramilitary clothing and patches with the Oath Keepers name, logo, and insignia – marched in a “stack” formation up the east steps of the Capitol, joined a mob, and made their way into the Capitol. Later, another group of Oath Keepers and associates, including James, Minuta, and Ulrich, formed a second “stack” and breached the Capitol grounds, marching from the west side to the east side of the Capitol building and up the east stairs and into the building.

While certain Oath Keepers members and affiliates breached the Capitol grounds and building, others remained stationed just outside of the city in quick reaction force (QRF) teams. According to the indictment, the QRF teams were prepared to rapidly transport firearms and other weapons into Washington, D.C., in support of operations aimed at using force to stop the lawful transfer of presidential power. The indictment alleges that the teams were coordinated, in part, by Caldwell and Vallejo.

 ...

In the one year since Jan. 6, more than 725 individuals have been arrested in nearly all 50 states for crimes related to the breach of the U.S. Capitol, including over 225 individuals charged with assaulting or impeding law enforcement. The investigation remains ongoing.


Attachment(s):
Download U.S v. Crowl et al.
Download U.S. v. Rhodes et al.
Download U.S. v. Walden
Posted by Pitney at 5:52 AM
Labels: crime, government, Guns, insurrection, political science, Politics, Trump

Thursday, January 13, 2022

MTG Update

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.   Case in point: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Brad Reed at Raw Story:

While speaking with right-wing media personality Sebastian Gorka, Greene slammed Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams for her policies regarding both vaccines and gun rights.

Greene then pivoted to talking about how Americans are guaranteed the right to bear arms to resist such supposed tyranny.

"Ultimately the truth is it’s our Second Amendment rights, our right to bear arms, that protects Americans and give us the ability to defend ourselves from a tyrannical government," she said. "And I hate to use this language but Democrats, they’re exactly -- they’re doing exactly what our Founders talked about when they gave us the precious rights that we have.”

David Edwards at Raw Story:

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) asserted on Thursday that scientists have been wrong "since the beginning of time."

During an interview on Real America's Voice, Steve Bannon told Greene that Dr. Peter Hotez of the Baylor College of Medicine had criticized her and other conservatives for their campaign against Covid-19 vaccines.

Bannon asked Greene if she was responsible for "200,000 deaths" that could have been prevented if people were vaccinated.

"The only people responsible for deaths are the people that created Covid-19 and they should be held accountable," Greene replied.

Greene went on to refer to Hotez as "Mr. Bowtie, who calls himself a scientist."

"He thinks he's the authority of truth," she complained. "Here's the situation, scientists have been wrong over and over and over since the beginning of time. So just because he's a scientist doesn't mean he's right."

 



Posted by Pitney at 9:40 AM
Labels: coronavirus, government, Greene, Guns, political science, Politics, science, vaccine, violence

Saturday, January 8, 2022

Insurrection Revisionism

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie.  And we now know how close he came to subverting the Constitution.  

Matthew Rosenberg, Jim Rutenberg and Michael M. Grynbaum at NYT:

The reimagining of Jan. 6 has not so much evolved as it has splintered into rival, but often complementary, false narratives with a common goal — to shift blame away from Mr. Trump, his supporters and a Republican Party maneuvering to win back control of government. The riot was a “false flag” operation by antifa, the loose left-wing collective; the F.B.I. planted agents to stir up the crowd; the protesters were mere “tourists” wrongfully accused by a Democratic-led Justice Department and vilified by a biased mainstream media; police officers recounting their injuries and trauma were “crisis actors.’”

Mr. [Tucker] Carlson has emerged as a leading proponent of Jan. 6 revisionism, most prominently with his three-part “Patriot Purge” series. Carried on the Fox Nation streaming service, it amplified a debunked “false flag” conspiracy theory that the F.B.I. had instigated the violence as a pretext to lock away peaceful but concerned Americans because of their political views, creating a class of patriot martyrs. On Thursday night, he aired excerpts from “Patriot Purge” on his prime-time show, spreading those conspiracy theories to one of the largest audiences on cable television.

Greg Weiner at AEI:

The latest in this revisionist genre comes from Eric Lendrum at American Greatness, who calls January 6 the left’s Reichstag fire and the right’s storming of the Bastille.

Lendrum’s assessment of January 6 is so filled with contradiction that it would flunk freshman composition. January 6 was a Reichstag fire because it was a pretext for progressive authoritarianism, he asserts, but the fact that progressive authoritarianism was already upon us justified the riot. The insurrection, meanwhile, was simultaneously peaceful, as though the rioters had knocked politely on the door and been let in for a tour by the Sergeant-at-Arms, and the second coming of the Bastille, whose commander, Jourdan de Launay, was stabbed to death after surrendering. Therein lies one essential difference: Lendrum’s proof that the protest was peaceful is—this is for real—that Trump supporters killed “[n]ot one person” on January 6. Refraining from assassination passes for a laudable accomplishment. Do they get a participation ribbon for that? The emphasis in the original suggests they should.

But permit Lendrum his paradoxes. Perhaps, like Rousseau, he cannot think without them. He apparently cannot think without morally repulsive Nazi analogies either. Conservatives, he proclaims, are “on a course for being every bit as ostracized and alienated from broader society as Jews were in the years leading up to Nazi Germany.” Republicans outnumber Democrats by 27 to 23 among state governors. They control a majority of state legislative seats. The Jews, by contrast—is it actually necessary to say this? Yes, apparently it is—were marched into gas chambers by the millions. Their descendants will have to set aside our snowflake impulse to take offense at this execrable trivialization of the Holocaust. Lendrum is after bigger game than respecting the memories of the Six Million: He is out to save civilization from the progressive hordes seeking our “enslavement by the state.”

Daniel Dale and Marshall Cohen at CNN:

In a December 21 statement, Trump called January 6 a "completely unarmed protest." Similarly, in a tweet on December 17, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia wrote, "One of the biggest holes in the lie about J6 being a planned insurrection is that all the people there were unarmed. Anyone with half a brain knows that gun owners only leave their firearms at home when they don't feel the need to carry a gun or are obeying the law."

Facts First: It's not even close to true that all of the people at the Capitol on January 6 were unarmed -- and the claim is still false even if it is specifically about guns. People who illegally entered Capitol grounds during the insurrection were armed with a wide variety of weapons, including guns, stun guns, knives, batons, baseball bats, axes and chemical sprays. The Department of Justice said in an official update last week that so far "over 75" people charged in connection to the attack "have been charged with entering a restricted area with a dangerous or deadly weapon."


Posted by Pitney at 5:37 AM
Labels: fox news, government, Guns, insurrection, lying, political science, Politics, Trump

Tuesday, December 28, 2021

Guns in the Insurrection

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the January 6 insurrection.  Some of the insurrectionists brought firerarms.


“THE JUDGE”

Here’s the gun the feds say that Mark Mazza dropped in the tunnel during the brutal assault on law enforcement on Jan. 6. https://t.co/kGViCyHisa pic.twitter.com/AWIIlrvutr

— Ryan J. Reilly (@ryanjreilly) December 28, 2021
Michael Kunzelman at AP:
A North Carolina man awaiting trial on charges he assaulted two police officers during the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol had an assault rifle and ammunition in his vehicle when he was arrested on suspicion of drunken driving earlier this month, according to prosecutors.

Justice Department prosecutors have asked a federal judge in Washington, D.C., to revoke 29-year-old James Tate Grant’s pretrial release and order him detained after his recent arrest. One of the conditions of Grant’s pretrial release in the Jan. 6 riot case was that he not possess a firearm or any other weapon.

The judge didn’t immediately rule on Thursday’s request by prosecutors.
Posted by Pitney at 1:46 PM
Labels: crime, government, Guns, insurrection, political science, Politics, Trump

Thursday, January 28, 2021

GOP, Q, and DJT

 

In Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's dishonesty and his record of disregarding the rule of law.  Our next book, Divided We Stand, looks at the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection.

Michael Scherer and Josh Dawsey at WP:
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced little more than a week ago that the mob that attacked the U.S. Capitol had been “provoked” by Donald Trump. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said Trump “bears responsibility” for failing to respond more quickly to the bloody incursion.

But that was then.

The nation’s two most powerful elected Republicans have signaled that they are ready to look past questions of responsibility for the violent effort to overturn the result of the presidential election, an attempt that left a Capitol Police officer and four rioters dead, as they maneuver to avoid a divisive battle within the Republican Party and try to position it to reclaim power in 2022.

McConnell (R-Ky.) voted Tuesday against a procedural motion to proceed with Trump’s impeachment in the Senate, while McCarthy (R-Calif.) planned to meet with Trump in Florida on Thursday to mend relations that were frayed by the Jan. 6 attack, according to an adviser to the former president.
Olivia Beavers at Politico:
McCarthy is meeting face-to-face with Trump today in the minority leader’s latest attempt to get back in the ex-president’s good graces. (H/t to Punchbowl News, which first reported these plans.) As many of you know, McCarthy incensed the former president with his impeachment floor speech, as well as floating censuring the president over the deadly Jan. 6 attacks.

Our friends at Playbook report that Trumpworld is elated: “It’s the first solid bit of evidence that Donald Trump is still in charge of the party,” one Trump adviser told them.

McCarthy has a lot to gain too: The House GOP is still Trump’s party. If McCarthy wants the confidence of his members – and the eventual speakership if Republicans take back the House – he needs the backing of the Trump wing.

Side note: In a sign of just how deep loyalty to Trump runs, one House staffer who works for an anti-certification GOP member tells me their office has received multiple calls from constituents who say the rioters didn’t inflict enough damage and that there should’ve been more people storming the Capitol.

...

Marjorie Taylor Greene isn’t doing McCarthy any favors. The freshman is facing widespread condemnation for her incendiary remarks before she ran for Congress, and she isn’t backing down.

The backlash over her social media activity, where she endorsed violent, QAnon-tied conspiracy theories, is escalating. Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.) is introducing a resolution that pushes for Greene to be expelled from Congress over what he argued was her “advocacy for extremism and sedition,” a call that other Democrats have echoed if she doesn’t resign. 

 Em Steck and Andrew Kaczynski, CNN:

Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene repeatedly indicated support for executing prominent Democratic politicians in 2018 and 2019 before being elected to Congress, a CNN KFile review of hundreds of posts and comments from Greene's Facebook page shows.
Greene, who represents Georgia's 14th Congressional District, frequently posted far-right extremist and debunked conspiracy theories on her page, including the baseless QAnon conspiracy which casts former President Donald Trump in an imagined battle against a sinister cabal of Democrats and celebrities who abuse children.
In one post, from January 2019, Greene liked a comment that said "a bullet to the head would be quicker" to remove House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In other posts, Greene liked comments about executing FBI agents who, in her eyes, were part of the "deep state" working against Trump.

  Paul LeBlanc, CNN:

Video of Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene confronting Parkland shooting survivor David Hogg before she was elected to Congress went viral Wednesday amid an uproar over newly surfaced comments she made in 2018 and 2019 as reported by CNN's KFile.
In the video from March 2019, Greene follows Hogg as he walks toward the US Capitol. She can be heard making false and baseless claims as she asks him a series of questions related to gun rights and how he was able to meet with senators. Hogg continues to walk without addressing Greene.
"He's a coward," Greene says at the end of the video as Hogg walks away, claiming his activism was funded by billionaire philanthropist George Soros, who is often the subject of far-right conspiracy theories, and other liberals. "He can't say one word because he can't defend his stance."
Greene -- who has previously called Hogg "#littleHitler" -- said in a written statement to CNN that the video was taken while she was in Washington, "going from office to office in the Senate to oppose the radical gun control agenda that David Hogg was pushing."


Posted by Pitney at 6:29 AM
Labels: Congress, conspiracy theory, government, Greene, Guns, House of Representatives, impeachment, Kevin McCarthy, McConnell, political science, Politics, QAnon, Trump
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