Red Pandemic

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well underway.  

Coronavirus presents unprecedented challenges to public policy and the electoral process.

The good news for Trump is that unemployment unexpectedly dipped in May.

The bad news is that the pandemic continues, and it keeps moving into Trump constituencies.William Frey at Brookings:

After more than two months of a national economic shutdown, much of the U.S. is starting to reopen. However, COVID-19 is continuing to spread to more parts of the country; since late April, counties with a high prevalence of cases have transitioned from “blue” America to “red,” where arguments for immediate reopening have been more pervasive.

This transition is reflected in both the demographic attributes and political orientation in the most recently exposed parts of the country. Over the six weeks from April 20 to May 31, counties newly designated as having a high COVID-19 prevalence are decidedly less dense, less diverse, and more likely to have voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election than was the case for new high-prevalence counties before mid-April.

 

Beating Steve King

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race.

Catherine Lucey and Lindsay Wise at WSJ:

It took a broad effort by Iowa’s political elite, Washington leaders, GOP donors and the White House to defeat longtime Rep. Steve King in the state’s primary Tuesday. But if there was one knockout blow, it came in late May, with a TV ad from high-profile evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats.

“Whatever you think of Steve King, it’s clear that he’s no longer effective,” declared Mr. Vander Plaats, in the ad from a super PAC supporting Republican state lawmaker Randy Feenstra, who decisively beat Mr. King. “He can’t deliver for President Trump and he can’t advance our conservative values.”

Insiders agreed the spot packed a punch, summing up years of frustration with the 18-year incumbent and his long history of controversial remarks on race and immigration, a frustration that for many had spilled into outright fury.

Mr. Feenstra’s win—he took nearly 46% of the vote, compared with King’s 36%—culminated more than a year of work, by the candidate and Iowa officials at first but later by national conservative groups and donors. They spent substantially on television advertising and direct mail and honed a message focused more on Mr. King’s lack of clout than his rhetoric.

Three Generals and an Admiral

In Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's dishonesty and his record of disregarding the rule of law. 

Two retired generals, one active general, and one retired admiral defend the Constitution against a lawless president.

It's Seven Days in May in reverse.

Former Secretary of Defense James Mattis has broken his silence:

When I joined the military, some 50 years ago, I swore an oath to support and defend the Constitution. Never did I dream that troops taking that same oath would be ordered under any circumstance to violate the Constitutional rights of their fellow citizens—much less to provide a bizarre photo op for the elected commander-in-chief, with military leadership standing alongside. We must reject any thinking of our cities as a “battlespace” that our uniformed military is called upon to “dominate.” At home, we should use our military only when requested to do so, on very rare occasions, by state governors.
...

Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try. Instead he tries to divide us. We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort. We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership. We can unite without him, drawing on the strengths inherent in our civil society. This will not be easy, as the past few days have shown, but we owe it to our fellow citizens; to past generations that bled to defend our promise; and to our children.

We can come through this trying time stronger, and with a renewed sense of purpose and respect for one another. The pandemic has shown us that it is not only our troops who are willing to offer the ultimate sacrifice for the safety of the community. Americans in hospitals, grocery stores, post offices, and elsewhere have put their lives on the line in order to serve their fellow citizens and their country. We know that we are better than the abuse of executive authority that we witnessed in Lafayette Square. We must reject and hold accountable those in office who would make a mockery of our Constitution. At the same time, we must remember Lincoln’s “better angels,” and listen to them, as we work to unite. Only by adopting a new path—which means, in truth, returning to the original path of our founding ideals—will we again be a country admired and respected at home and abroad.

This memo from Gen. Milley is pretty interesting--I'd even say startling. pic.twitter.com/25Q5eyuspb

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) June 3, 2020

Milley's letter is more of a bombshell than Mattis's (which is no small thing itself). Milley is the sitting CJCS affirming that the military must remain true to the Constitution. Like, almost as a response to something going on around him.

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) June 3, 2020

In The Atlantic on Tuesday, Mike Mullen Seventeenth chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff:

It sickened me yesterday to see security personnel—including members of the National Guard—forcibly and violently clear a path through Lafayette Square to accommodate the president's visit outside St. John's Church. I have to date been reticent to speak out on issues surrounding President Trump's leadership, but we are at an inflection point, and the events of the past few weeks have made it impossible to remain silent.

Whatever Trump's goal in conducting his visit, he laid bare his disdain for the rights of peaceful protest in this country, gave succor to the leaders of other countries who take comfort in our domestic strife, and risked further politicizing the men and women of our armed forces.

Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.), 16th Supreme Allied Commander at NATO. at Time:

 Our active duty military must remain above the fray of domestic politics, and the best way to do that is to keep that force focused on its rightful mission outside the United States. Our senior active duty military leaders must make that case forcefully and directly to national leadership, speaking truth to power in uncomfortable ways. They must do this at the risk of their career. I hope they will do so, and not allow the military to be dragged into the maelstrom that is ahead of us, and which will likely only accelerate between now and November. If they do not stand and deliver on this vital core value, I fear for the soul of our military and all of the attendant consequences. We cannot afford to have a future Lafayette Square end up looking like Tiananmen Square.

The House Is Not in Play

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race.

Stuart Rothenberg at Roll Call:

Of the major political handicappers, not even one of them thinks the House is likely to flip in November.

Mot the folks at the Cook Political Report. Not the analysts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball. And certainly not my colleagues at Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, who in a recent column argued that the most likely House result is anything from “a GOP gain of five seats to a Democratic gain of five seats.” (For more on that, watch Nathan’s recent CQ Roll Call video.)

He cites these reasons:

• Trump's unpopularity
• Democratic fundraising advantages
• GOP recruiting failures 

The Trump albatross is getting heavier.

Steven Shepard at Politico:

Nearly seven-in-10 voters say things in the U.S. are pretty seriously on the wrong track, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.

Only 31 percent of voters say the country is headed in the right direction, the lowest mark recorded in POLITICO/Morning Consult polling since President Donald Trump took office in early 2017. Sixty-nine percent of those surveyed from May 29-June 1 say the country is on the wrong track.

 Grant Smith, Joseph Ax, Chris Kahn at Reuters report on a Reuters/Ipsos poll:

The survey conducted on Monday and Tuesday found 64% of American adults were “sympathetic to people who are out protesting right now,” while 27% said they were not and 9% were unsure.

The poll underscored the political risks for Trump, who has adopted a hardline approach to the protests and threatened to deploy the U.S. military to quell violent dissent. The Republican president faces Democrat Joe Biden in November’s election.

More than 55% of Americans said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of the protests, including 40% who “strongly” disapproved, while just one-third said they approved - lower than his overall job approval of 39%, the poll showed.

A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll found that Biden’s lead over Trump among registered voters expanded to 10 percentage points - the biggest margin since the former vice president became his party’s presumptive nominee in early April.

Monmouth:

Most Americans say the anger about black deaths at the hands of police officers that led to recent protests is fully justified, even if they do not feel the same about the actual actions. A majority of the public now agrees that the police are more likely to use excessive force with a black person than a white person in similar situations. Only one-third of the country held this opinion four years ago. The Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll also finds that the number of people who consider racial and ethnic discrimination to be a big problem has increased from about half in 2015 to nearly 3 in 4 now. In other results, President Donald Trump’s job rating has ticked down again as opinion that the country is headed down the wrong track surpasses 70% for the first time in Monmouth’s polling.

Manic Monday

In Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's dishonesty and his record of disregarding the rule of law. 

Trump started the day with a call to the boss.  Michael Crowley at NYT:

President Trump and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia spoke by telephone on Monday, two days after Mr. Trump said he would invite Mr. Putin to attend a Group of 7 summit in the United States in September, the latest instance of a renewed round of personal diplomacy between the two leaders this year.

Hours after the Kremlin first described the call on its website, the White House released a statement saying that the men had discussed “the latest efforts to defeat the coronavirus pandemic and reopen global economies” and “progress toward convening the G7.” A largely similar Kremlin readout said Mr. Trump had initiated the call, and a senior White House official said Mr. Trump had extended a personal invitation to Mr. Putin to attend the gathering, which the president will host.

Robert Costa,  Seung Min Kim and  Josh Dawsey at WP:

President Trump on Monday berated the nation’s governors during a conference call, describing them as “weak” in the face of growing racial unrest and urging them to take an aggressive stand against unruly protests.

Trump told governors that if they don’t take back the streets and use force to confront protesters they would look like “fools,” alarming several governors on the call as they communicated privately.

“You have to dominate. If you don’t dominate, you’re wasting your time,” he said. “They’re going to run over you. You’re going to look like a bunch of jerks.”

And he topped it off:

President Trump demanded governors deploy troops to "dominate the streets." Then he walked through a park cleared of protesters by tear gas to pose in front of a church.

Throughout Washington, D.C., and the United States, protests continued to rage. https://t.co/ys5Qs6QoIG

— The Associated Press (@AP) June 2, 2020

"White Supremest"

In Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's character and record of bigotry.

No patriotic American should brandish or proudly celebrate the iconography of a rebellion that resulted in tremendous devastation, the loss of more than 620,000 American lives, and the continued subjugation of Black America. pic.twitter.com/wc0VxVOrxA

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) June 1, 2020

Even if true, why is he going out of his way to exonerate them? He must have seen the ad by @jwgop @gtconway3d @TheRickWilson @SteveSchmidtSES https://t.co/2woYua86Xv https://t.co/LFI2Y42n97

— Andrew Do (@andrewdoDC) June 1, 2020

The House GOP's Huge Challenge

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race.

Mike DeBonis at WP:

Vulnerable Democratic incumbents have massively outraised their Republican challengers, national GOP groups have yet to show the ability to make up the fundraising gap, and in several key districts, some of the party’s most coveted recruits have opted not to run. Public opinion polls, meanwhile, indicate a Democratic advantage on the congressional ballot in line with what the party enjoyed in 2018, ahead of their sweeping national gains.

Multiple nonpartisan forecasters, in fact, have worsened their outlook for House Republicans in recent weeks, arguing that those structural disadvantages, plus national political head winds for Republicans, will limit GOP House gains — and potentially allow for further Democratic pickups.

“Republicans sincerely believe that 2018 was a high-water mark for Democrats, that it is just not possible that Democrats can improve on their 2018 performance, and I don’t know that that’s true,” said Nathan L. Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, who recently declared the California result an “outlier” and predicted that the November election would leave the House “close to the status quo” with no more than five seats changing hands between parties.

...

While the gap is now 17 seats, the margin is certain to be wider. A court-ordered mid-cycle redistricting in North Carolina created two additional safe Democratic seats in that state, and the retirement of GOP Rep. Will Hurd has opened a prime Democratic pickup opportunity in South Texas.

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Data compiled by the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman found that, as of March, in the 55 top races targeted by the NRCC, the median Democratic incumbent had raised more than six times what the median leading Republican challenger had raised. And that was before the coronavirus pandemic upended political fundraising, making it more difficult for those behind to catch up. Wasserman declared the GOP’s path to the majority as “slim to non-existent” earlier this month.