Biden's GOP Outreach Failure

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun.

 Jonathan Martin at Politico writes that Biden has not reached out to Chris Christie.

It’s political malpractice. And Christie isn’t the only anti-Trump Republican or independent waiting for their phone to ring.

Prominent former GOP officeholders, from George W. Bush to Mike Pence to Paul Ryan, also haven’t been contacted.

The same goes for former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who, like Christie, flirted with a No Labels run. Asked in January if Biden ever contacted him, perhaps about an ambassadorship, Hogan said no. As if to drive home the point, Hogan, whose wife is Korean American, happened to mention that he has a nickname in South Korea that translates to “son-in-law.” About two months later, Hogan announced his candidacy, as a Republican, for the Senate.

I reached out to every current Republican lawmaker who has refused to commit to Trump in the general election. Sens. Susan Collins (Maine) Mitt Romney (Utah), Todd Young (Indiana), Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) all said the same: they’ve not heard from Biden.

“It is surprising,” Collins told me. “It’s especially surprising because President Biden does understand the Senate, he has personal relationships with some of us.”

...

The point, though, isn’t for Biden to turn all these figures into his campaign surrogates. Perhaps some will do that, former Rep. Liz Cheney being the most likely prospect to embrace that sort of Stop Trump mission. But the more realistic goal, certainly with GOP senators, is to soften their criticism of him and make them feel more comfortable denouncing Trump.

Would figures such as Romney or Collins still be uneasy with Biden’s immigration policy if the president had them and their spouses to Camp David or a private White House dinner? Of course. Yet would the senators be somewhat more restrained in their public judgment of Biden? Well, it’s a people business.

The Lincoln Project

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well underway. 

An unusual aspect of the campaign is the number of high-profile Republicans attacking Trump or supporting Biden.

At 60 Minutes, Lesley Stahl reports on the Lincoln Project:

Lesley Stahl: Have you given up your careers?
Steve Schmidt: None of us will ever work in Republican politics again. We-- we joke that like some of the explorers who came to the new world, they were incentivized by the captain when he burned the ships that there was-- (LAUGH) there was no return (LAUGH) going back. 

... 

Lesley Stahl: Who are you aiming for? What kind of a voter?
Rick Wilson: So those independent-leaning men, those college-educated Republicans, the suburban Republican women. We understand where these voters are, we understand who they are and how they think. And Lesley, it's a game of small numbers. I mean, Donald Trump won this election by 77,000 votes in three states.
Lesley Stahl: You basically have endorsed Joe Biden.
Reed Galen: We have. We have endorsed Joe Biden. Yes.

"Mourning in America" was a pivotal moment. 

...
Reed Galen: The President attacked all of us by name. Called us losers. And we raised $2 million in 48 hours.
Lesley Stahl: So he's helping you?
Reed Galen: He bought us instant credibility.

..

Reed Galen: We have a standing buy on Fox News in Washington, D.C. with Fox and Friends, Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity, every night.
Lesley Stahl: Is that because he watches?
Reed Galen: Yes. Because we know he's in the residence with his super TiVo watching.Lesley Stahl: Why is provoking him a good strategy?
Rick Wilson: Every time Donald Trump loses his mind and throws things at the wall because a Lincoln Project ad is up, that takes the whole campaign off track. There's one thing you never get back in a campaign. That's a lost day.
Lesley Stahl: Are you concerned that you're stooping to the president's level of being mean?
Rick Wilson: I hope so. (LAUGH) There's always a reflexive sort of-- do-gooder instinct to say, "Oh, I hate negative ads." People do hate negative ads, but negative ads work.

...

 Mike Madrid: The real dividing line in the Republican Party is between college-educated and non-college-educated voters. And what we're seeing is, when Donald Trump starts to push messages like law and order, or defends, you know, the Confederate flags and Confederate monuments, he does seem to be able to coalesce a small number of non-college-educated workers in the Rust Belt states. But at the same time, he's pushing white, college-educated workers in the Sun Belt states out of his column.

It's a reverse twist on the old Southern strategy where Republicans used racist appeals to attract white voters in the South. And they're trying to capitalize on it.

Mike Madrid: What we see in the South is more and more people in high-tech industries saying, "This is a politics that I reject."

 

Never Trump, Late September

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well underway. 

An unusual aspect of the campaign is the number of high-profile Republicans attacking Trump or supporting Biden.

They keep coming, along with former military.

\Chris Cillizza at CNN:

The latest sign came Sunday, when former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge penned an op-ed in the Philadelphia Inquirer making clear his intent to vote for former Vice President Joe Biden over President Donald Trump in November.

 ...

Ridge joins fellow Bush Cabinet secretaries Christine Todd Whitman (EPA), Ann Veneman (Agriculture), Carlos Gutierrez (Commerce) and Colin Powell (State) as Biden endorsers. Ray LaHood, a former Republican congressman from Illinois, and Chuck Hagel, the former Nebraska Republican senator, both of whom served in the Obama Cabinet, have also backed Biden.

And that's just Republicans who served in a presidential Cabinet! There are a slew of other prominent GOP elected officials -- from former Ohio Gov. John Kasich to former California gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman to 2016 presidential candidate Carly Fiorina to former Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder -- who are on record as either planning to vote for Biden or leaning in that direction.

Then there are the staffers. That group includes the former chiefs of staff at the Department of Education and Department of Homeland Security in the Trump administration! More than 70 national security officials from various Republican administrations are backing Biden. As are more than 150 alums of the George W. Bush White House.

Karen DeYoung at WP:

Nearly 500 retired senior military officers, as well as former Cabinet secretaries, service chiefs and other officials, have signed an open letter in support of former vice president Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee, saying that he has “the character, principles, wisdom and leadership necessary to address a world on fire.”

The letter, published Thursday morning by National Security Leaders for Biden, is the latest in a series of calls for President Trump’s defeat in the November election.

 

Bailing Out of Trumpworld

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well underway. 

An unusual aspect of the campaign is the number of high-profile Republicans attacking Trump or supporting Biden.

James Hohmann at WP:

Former national security adviser H.R. McMaster called President Trump’s withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan a big mistake that will make America less safe. “He, in effect, is partnering with the Taliban against, in many ways, the Afghan government,” the retired three-star general told CBS in an interview that will air Sunday on “60 Minutes” ahead of the publication of his new book, “Battlegrounds,” on Tuesday. “Terrorist organizations who pose a threat to us are stronger now than they were on September 10, 2001.”


Education Secretary Betsy DeVos’s former chief of staff, Josh Venable, joined a group of 25 other Trump alumni on Thursday who want to see the president defeated. Former Department of Homeland Security chief of staff Miles Taylor formed the Republican Political Alliance for Integrity & Reform, which will be known as REPAIR. Taylor told Politico that a current senior administration official is also part of the group, but he declined to name that person.

The biggest splash of the day came from Olivia Troye, who worked as Vice President Pence’s homeland security, counterterrorism and coronavirus adviser until she left the White House last month. The lifelong Republican endorsed Joe Biden, citing Trump’s lack of seriousness behind closed doors when she was a senior adviser on the coronavirus task force. “There were a lot of closed-door conversations I have had with a lot of senior people across the administration where they agree with me wholeheartedly,” Troye told The Washington Post.

She recorded this blistering video for Republican Voters Against Trump: 

Latest from the Lincoln Project:

NeverTrump Update

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well underway. 

  An unusual aspect of the campaign is the number of high-profile Republicans supporting Biden.

Jacob Knutson at Axios:

Former Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, a Republican, said in a USA Today op-ed published Thursday that he will vote for Joe Biden because "President Trump lacks a moral compass" and "ignores the truth."

• What he's saying: Snyder called Trump a "bully" for verbally abusing those who oppose or disagree with him. He added the president has "demonstrated that he does not fully appreciate public policy matters, including public health, the economy and foreign relations, nor does he seem to want to learn."
• "I will continue to support and stand up for Republican policies and values, and support Republican candidates, but I will not support Donald Trump for reelection."
• "A great leader treats people with respect even when they present different opinions. Without a variety of views and opinions, we would have no innovation or creativity in our nation," Snyder wrote.
• "Being a bully and being strong are not the same thing. Being strong is standing up for your convictions. Being a bully is trying to intimidate those who are perceived to be weaker or a threat.
• "As a proud nerd, I had to deal with bullies over many years; it is tragedy watching our world suffer from one."

Go deeper: The top Republicans who aren't voting for Trump in 2020

Today, we announce our coalition of the decent. We are proud Republicans and right-leaning indepdendents ready to defeat Donald Trump and elect @JoeBiden in November.

Check out the full story from Tim Reid @Reuters: https://t.co/VozqedLmVu

— Republicans & Independents for Biden (@RsAndIs4Biden) September 3, 2020

He doesn't protect them. He doesn't respect them.

He's a disgrace. #WakeUp pic.twitter.com/Ci2kfWv1V1

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) September 5, 2020

The Permission Ramp Gets Sturdier

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well underway. 

  An unusual aspect of the campaign is the number of high-profile Republicans supporting Biden.


Camilo Montoya-Galvez at CBS:

Republican aides who worked in the George W. Bush administration and for the late Senator John McCain and Mitt Romney vouched their support for 2020 Democratic nominee Joe Biden on Thursday, joining other GOP officials in rejecting President Trump's reelection campaign on the final day of the Republican National Convention.

...

"Given the incumbent president's lack of competent leadership, his efforts to aggravate rather than bridge divisions among Americans, and his failure to uphold American values, we believe the election of former Vice President Biden is clearly in the national interest," more than 100 former McCain staffers wrote in a public letter.

Romney's former staffers were more forceful in their rebuke of Mr. Trump, saying that while some of them voted for him in 2016, they are all now worried about the GOP transforming into a "toxic personality cult" under the president's leadership. Romney himself has frequently crossed the White House since arriving in the Senate, and was the only GOP senator to vote to convict Mr. Trump in his impeachment trial.

"Since 2017, the results of that disastrous decision have been on full display for the world to see. Now, with a pandemic crippling our economy and strangling our national spirit, every corner of America is suffering at the hands of President Trump's erratic, inept, self-absorbed governing style," more than 30 former Romney aides wrote in their letter.

...
"Joe's kindness is sorely needed right now. He famously treats the train operator with the same dignity as his fellow senators. As former public servants, we believe that decency in government must not be allowed to die on the vine," 230 Bush alumni wrote in their letter. "We must take a stand and insist that it returns to the Office of the President."

Former Bush/Reagan DOJ Officials Back Biden

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well underway.  An unusual aspect of the campaign is the number of high-profile Republicans supporting Biden.

Natasha Korecki at Politico reports on former DOJ officials under GOP administrations are supporting Biden:

“I think a lot of us are extremely alarmed, frankly, at the threat of autocracy,” Donald B. Ayer, former deputy attorney general during the George H.W. Bush administration, said in an interview with POLITICO. “He’s going to be unleashed if he gets a second term. I don’t know what’s going to stop him.”

Others include:

• Alan Charles Raul, who served as vice chair of the White House Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board under George W. Bush and served in roles with George H.W. Bush as well as associate counsel to the president in the Reagan administration.
• Charles Fried, former U.S. solicitor general under the Reagan administration and an associate justice of the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court.
• Stuart Gerson, who worked as assistant attorney general under George H. W. Bush.
• Peter Keisler, former U.S. acting attorney general under George W. Bush.
• Paul Rosenweig, who served in the department of Homeland Security under George W. Bush.
• Robert Shanks, former U.S. deputy assistant attorney general in the Reagan administration
• J.W. Verret, who served on Trump’s presidential transition staff.

Four years ago, Benjamin Wittes wrote:

The soft spot, the least tyrant-proof part of the government, is the U.S. Department of Justice and the larger law enforcement and regulatory apparatus of the United States government. The first reason you should fear a Donald Trump presidency is what he would do to the ordinary enforcement functions of the federal government, not the most extraordinary ones.

Republicans for Biden

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well underway.  An unusual aspect of the campaign is the number of high-profile Republicans supporting Biden.

Brooke Singman at Fox:

Joe Biden's list of Republican supporters, shared first with Fox News, includes a number of well-known Trump critics, most notably former GOP Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona.
...
Some others on the list had already backed the former vice president, including former Republican Sens. Gordon Humphrey of New Hampshire (who is now an independent) and John Warner of Virginia. They're joined by a number of former Republican House members:

Former Reps. Steve Bartlett of Texas, Bill Clinger of Pennsylvania, Tom Coleman of Missouri, Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania, Charles Djou of Hawaii, Mickey Edwards of Oklahoma, Wayne Gilchrest of Maryland, Jim Greenwood of Pennsylvania, Bob Inglis of South Carolina, Jim Kolbe of Arizona, Steve Kuykendall of California, Ray LaHood of Illinois (who served as Transportation secretary in the Obama administration), Jim Leach of Iowa, Connie Morella of Maryland, Mike Parker of Mississippi, Jack Quinn of New York, Claudine Schneider of Rhode Island, Chris Shays of Connecticut, Peter Smith of Vermont, Alan Steelman of Texas, Bill Whitehurst of Virginia, Dick Zimmer of New Jersey, and Jim Walsh of New York.

Never Trump During the D Convention

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well underway.  

An unusual number of prominent Republicans and former administration officials have broken with Trump.

NEW: Testimonial ad from Trump's Former DHS Chief of Staff @MilesTaylorUSA, declaring his support for Joe Biden and describing Trump's presidency as "terrifying" and "actively doing damage to our security."

WATCH & go to https://t.co/Nz2NiSCquN for more. pic.twitter.com/iChqOdIIew

— Republican Voters Against Trump (@RVAT2020) August 17, 2020

I’m a lifelong Republican, but that attachment holds second place to my responsibility to my country’ — Listen to former GOP Ohio Governor John Kasich slam Trump and explain why he’s voting for Joe Biden in 2020 pic.twitter.com/nABSt4qke7

— NowThis (@nowthisnews) August 18, 2020

August 13, 1996: John Kasich and Susan Molinari address Republican National Convention.

August 17, 2020: John Kasich and Susan Molinari address Democratic National Convention. pic.twitter.com/OC2skT8MDq

— Howard Mortman (@HowardMortman) August 18, 2020

More Never Trump

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well underway.  

Ashley Parker and  Robert Costa at WP:

Republican Voters Against Trump, which was founded by longtime conservative and self-described “Never Trumper” Sarah Longwell, has concentrated almost entirely on sharing testimonials from traditional Republicans who voted for Trump in 2016 but are planning — sometimes reluctantly — to support Biden in November.

The group also includes William Kristol, a conservative commentator; Tim Miller, a Republican operative who worked on Jeb Bush’s 2016 presidential campaign; and Mike Murphy, a longtime Republican strategist.

Longwell said she spent most of the three years after Trump’s election trying to understand what happened and conducting focus groups with voters who supported Trump in 2016 but now rate his performance in office as “somewhat bad” or “very bad.” As her group began testing ads, they quickly realized that slick commercials were often less persuasive than raw testimonials from fellow Republicans with similar doubts about the current president.

Frank Bruni at NYT:

“I personally think that the Republican brand is probably destroyed,” [George] Conway told me. “It’s destroyed by it having become essentially a personality cult.” He said that he formally left the party, changing his voter registration to unaffiliated, some two years ago, and he doesn’t envision being able to return anytime soon.

,,,

That’s what’s so fascinating about their quest. They’re not fighting to come in from the wilderness. The wilderness is a given. They’re just fighting to get rid of this one sun-hogging, diseased redwood — or orangewood, as the case may be.

I asked Conway, “So you’ll be a man without a party for the rest of your days?”

“Probably,” he said. “It makes me tremendously sad.”

...
Through some of their anti-Trump organizations, funded by donors, some of them have arranged employment no longer available to them in conventional Republican circles. In The Atlantic recently, Andrew Ferguson fairly called out individual Never Trumpers for inconsistency, hypocrisy and opportunism, and raised questions about the degree to which a few of the people with the Lincoln Project are profiting from it.

But the most important syllable in Never Trumper is Trump, and Never Trumpers are essentially sowing the seeds of their own diminished relevance by working to get rid of him.

That’s why, when I look at them, I see patriotism, though John Weaver — who, along with Conway, helped to found the Lincoln Project — emphasized a different idea when we spoke. He stressed atonement.

Trump’s election made him revisit how he and other Republican strategists had paved the way for Trump. For instance, Weaver worked for the man who was the first U.S. senator to endorse Trump for president.

“Jeff Sessions wouldn’t have gotten to the Senate had I not overseen his race in 1996,” Weaver told me. “Now I look back at that and say, ‘What kind of goddamn penance do I have to pay for that?’”

Trump’s campaign manager is a felon.
His deputy campaign manager is a felon.
His national security advisor is a felon.
His foreign policy advisor is a felon.
His personal lawyer is a felon.
His long time advisor is a felon.

It’s not a campaign, it’s a criminal enterprise. pic.twitter.com/3U2VZNcaiL

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) July 12, 2020

The Permission Ramp

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well under  way.  

At The Washington Monthly, Nancy LeTourneau writes about anti-Trump Republicans:

The ranks include the Lincoln Project, Right Side PAC, 43 Alumni for Biden, and Republican Voters Against Trump. The proliferation of these groups strikes me as unprecedented in modern political history, so it deserves our attention. Here is something Republican strategist John Weaver said about the goal of the Lincoln Project.

“Republicans are hierarchical,” Weaver said. “So what’s not getting a lot of attention right now is the structure we are building — the permission ramp for Republicans so that they will have some comfort that they are not alone in doing the right thing.”

The fact that Republicans are hierarchical is an astute observation. But that’s not the only reason why building a permission ramp is important. As Andrew Levison wrote, conservatives have actually built a three-level ideological cocoon that these kinds of efforts could puncture. The first level is a national media structure headlined by Fox News. Behind that are local news sources such as Sinclair TV stations and talk radio. A permission ramp is more likely to affect the third level, which Levison describes as the most significant.

Jeff Zeleny at CNN:

"It's not that Donald Trump just gives us material for the ads," said Sarah Longwell, strategic director of Republican Voters Against Trump. "It's about Donald Trump not being fit to be President, and everybody is seeing that now."

Longwell, a longtime Republican strategist who has been working to defeat Trump since before he was elected, has conducted focus groups with hundreds of Republicans who supported the President. Those conversations led her to believe that many voters are looking for a permission structure -- or, perhaps, in need of a little like-minded nudging -- to abandon Trump.

"In 2016, he got nominated, everybody sort of panicked and we all tried to beat him and obviously we failed," Longwell said. "One of the things we did at the time was a bunch of elites from the Reagan and Bush era signed letters, talking about why they didn't like Trump, but so much of the support for Trump was an anti-elitism play. So our focus in 2020 is really thinking about real people and real voices and how they're thinking about Donald Trump after seeing him be President for the last four years."

If you haven’t yet, watch this incredible ad by @RVAT2020. If you have, watch it again. pic.twitter.com/31HHyJD7ER

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) July 10, 2020

Trump’s Banana Republic pic.twitter.com/b6Of0RmZJG

— Republican Voters Against Trump (@RVAT2020) July 11, 2020

Anti-Trump Republicans

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well under  way.   

Alayna Treene and Jonathan Swan at Axios:

A group of prominent Republican operatives that includes former officials from the Trump and George W. Bush administrations are launching a super PAC to turn out GOP voters for Joe Biden in November, organizers tell Axios.

Details: The "Right Side PAC" aims to identify former Trump supporters across the country who have cooled to the president's approach in office and convince them to vote for Biden, says founder Matt Borges, a former chairman of the Ohio Republican Party.

• Anthony Scaramucci, who was fired after 10 days as Trump's communications director and later turned on the president, also is part of the effort.

How it works: The PAC will initially target voters in the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida.

• They'll use digital, mail and telephone to reach voters. They'll encourage absentee voting. They do not have plans to run TV ads.
• It's getting help from a few dozen operatives, including alums of Bush and the late Sen. John McCain's presidential campaigns.
• They'll lay out Biden's record on free trade, states' rights, federal spending and respecting U.S. diplomatic and military alliances — and highlight his Catholic faith — to make the case that most anti-Trump Republicans can feel comfortable supporting him.
• The group intends to rely heavily on major donors.
• More detail on its backers should come out with its first Federal Election Commission filing in mid-July.

Between the lines: The group sees itself as a complement to The Lincoln Project, the anti-Trump group led by George Conway (husband of Trump counselor Kellyanne Conway) and several prominent GOP operatives.

The Lincoln Project is more focused on TV ads and broader messaging, while Right Side will concentrate more on data and individualized turnout, Borges said. "We're going to dig into the data and find out where these voters are and try to help turn them out."