Search This Blog

Showing posts with label television. Show all posts
Showing posts with label television. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 9, 2026

More on the Welker Interview

Our books have discussed Trump's low character, which was on display this weekend.   An interview with Kristen Welker went sideways.

 Sofia Kinzinger:

After the interview was taped but before it aired, Welker mentioned on Sunday’s broadcast that the president had reached out. They spoke. He agreed to do a second interview.

Read that again slowly.

You do not call a reporter after a taped interview to say everything went great. You call because you know there’s a need for damage control. You do not offer a second sit-down out of generosity — you offer one because you are hoping for a redo. The second interview is not a goodwill gesture. It is a damage control overture. It is the White House’s way of saying: we know what’s coming, and we do not want it to air.

The fact that Welker disclosed this publicly, on air, is itself a signal. The damage control attempt became part of the damage.

Step back even further and look at why Wisconsin in the first place.

This was the president’s first trip to the state since being reelected in 2024. He chose a farm. He brought the Secretary of Agriculture. He hosted a roundtable titled “American Agriculture.” The symbolism is loud, and it is loud because the silence underneath it is deafening.

Farmers, and specifically Midwestern farmers, have been among the most quietly devastated constituencies of the current administration’s trade policies. Tariffs that were supposed to open foreign markets have instead raised input costs. Fertilizer prices tied to the Iran war have climbed. Fuel costs have followed. Deal after deal, announced with fanfare and followed by complexity, has left farmers absorbing losses that were never part of the pitch they were sold.

Tariffs, cuts to USDA programs, and immigration policy that has frightened away farm laborers have combined to create a compounding pressure on small and medium farms across Wisconsin. These are not abstract policy debates for the families running those operations. These are balance sheets. These are decisions about whether to plant next season.

Share

And when Welker asked Trump directly about gas and fertilizer prices climbing because of the war, he snapped: “Are you ready? Am I allowed to talk?” Then: “I love the farmers and the farmers love me.”

That line — “the farmers love me”— was the whole point of the trip. And the fact that it had to be said out loud, with visible frustration, on a farm in the rain, in front of a journalist who wouldn’t let it stand unchallenged, tells you more about where things actually stand than any poll number could.

Farmers are not a monolith, but they are a constituency that carries symbolic and electoral weight far beyond their numbers. They represent something in the American political imagination — self-reliance, resilience, the backbone of the country. When that group begins to peel away, it does not just change vote counts. It changes the story.

The support has been quietly diminishing for months. Not loudly. Not with protests or rallies. Just with the slow, grinding reality of costs that don’t come down, promises that don’t deliver, and a White House that showed up to Wisconsin with a camera crew and a curated barn and a message that felt, even to its intended audience, like it was meant for television rather than for them.

That gap — between the image and the reality, between the invitation and the exit, between the staged farm backdrop and the president walking off the set — is the story.


Thursday, December 18, 2025

Ranting and Lying

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. Trump is showing his age.  Sometimes, it's amusing, but sometimes it's disturbingCognitive decline is no joke when it involves someone who can wipe out all life on Earth.

David Sanger at NYT:

President Trump gave an 18-minute speech intended to defend his accomplishments in the first year, and argue that the “Golden Age” he promised in his presidential campaign last year was building steam.

The speech was, in typical form, largely strung together from familiar lines he uses at White House events, rallies and speeches. And, in Trumpian style, there were a long list of exaggerations and misleading statements.

But notably absent from the president’s remarks was his argument from recent weeks that “affordability” was nothing but a “hoax” and a “con job” by Democrats — a line that made his own advisers cringe.
Mr. Trump, always more comfortable with what he calls his “weave” of free association rather than reading from a teleprompter, raced through his talk as if he was late to an important dinner. There were no digressions, unlike his speech in Pennsylvania a week ago when he repeatedly veered from the topic. At times he seemed to be yelling — almost as if he didn’t believe he had to take the time to convince his audience of how well his first 11 months had gone.

As usual, Trump lied.  Daniel Dale at CNN:

Inflation under Trump: Near the end of the speech, Trump falsely claimed, “Inflation is stopped.” Inflation hasn’t stopped; the year-over-year inflation rate in September, 3.0%, was the same as the rate when Trump returned to office in January – in fact, if you go to multiple decimal places, the September rate was a tiny bit higher – and September was the fifth consecutive month the year-over-year rate had increased.


 

...

After noting that the price of eggs has plummeted since March, Trump added, “And everything else is falling rapidly.” That is not true even if he was talking specifically about grocery prices, which are up this year. Consumer Price Index data shows that a far greater number of grocery items have increased in price since he returned to office than have decreased. The most recent available CPI figures at the time he spoke on Wednesday, for September, showed that average grocery prices were up about 2.7% from September 2024; about 1.4% from January 2025, the month Trump returned to office; and about 0.3% from August to September.
...

Prescription drug prices: Trump repeated his false claim that an executive order he issued on prescription drug prices will cut those prices by “as much as 400, 500, and even 600%.” These figures are mathematically impossible; if the president magically got the companies to reduce the prices of all of their drugs to $0, that would be a 100% cut. You can read a longer fact check here.

...

Investment in the US this year: Trump repeated his false claim that there has been “$18 trillion” in investment in the US during his second presidency, saying Wednesday, “I’ve secured a record-breaking $18 trillion of investment into the United States.” This figure is fiction. At the time he spoke on Wednesday, the White House’s own website said the figure was “$9.6 trillion,” and even that is a major exaggeration; a detailed CNN review in October found the White House was counting trillions of dollars in vague investment pledges, pledges that were about “bilateral trade” or “economic exchange” rather than investment in the US, or vague statements that didn’t even rise to the level of pledges. You can read more here.

 

Thursday, September 18, 2025

Federal Censorship


JACK BLANCHARD with DASHA BURNS at POLITICO:
[Jimmy] Kimmel was heavily criticized on the right for a line in his Monday show discussing the arrest of Kirk’s suspected killer, Tyler Robinson. “We hit some new lows over the weekend with the MAGA gang trying to characterize this kid who killed Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them and doing everything they can to score political points from it,” Kimmel said. (Watch the whole clip here.)

It was kind of a throwaway line (and Kimmel had previously passed on heartfelt condolences to the Kirks). But it was also a pretty weird thing to say, given we’d heard from Utah Gov. Spencer Cox the day before that investigators had indicated Robinson had a “leftist ideology.” Conservatives saw Kimmel’s words as part of a wider pattern of liberal voices trying to muddy the waters about the motives behind Kirk’s killing. He has not addressed what he said.

But let’s be clear: None of this was likely to get Kimmel canned. But then Brendan Carr, Trump’s FCC chair, entered into the fray, piling public pressure on ABC and its owner, Disney, to take action by threatening dark consequences if it refused to do so. Status’ Oliver Darcy reports that an afternoon of panicked executive meetings ensued and that Kimmel planned to address the controversy head-on. ABC’s affiliates piled on the pressure. Eventually, Disney execs pulled the plug.

The fallout: Carr celebrated by sending various gloating memes to media reporters. Kimmel is said to be furious, per the Daily Mail. Puck’s Dylan Byers reckons ABC bosses still hope to get the matter “resolved” and “have the show return.” In the meantime, some ABC-affiliate stations will broadcast tributes to Kirk during Kimmel’s slot on Friday. Trump wants NBC to fire Jimmy Fallon and Seth Meyers next.

For conservatives, this is a FAFO moment: Kimmel made false insinuations at a highly sensitive time and is being held accountable by his bosses. His show was losing viewers and money anyway, they say, and now the market has done its thing. He can always head to YouTube if he’s so popular.

For liberals, this is another huge Rubicon crossed — borderline state censorship in a country that prides itself on free speech. A president who hates being mocked and ridiculed had been pressuring TV bosses to fire a prominent critic for months. This week he used the power of the FCC to force the issue.

Friday, July 25, 2025

Trump Makes South Park Relevant

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics

 Sian Cain at The Guardian:

South Park co-creator Trey Parker had the briefest of responses on Thursday to anger from the White House over the latest season premiere, which showed a naked Donald Trump in bed with Satan.

“We’re terribly sorry,” Parker said, followed by a long, deadpan-comic stare.

Parker was asked for his reaction to the fracas on the stage at San Diego’s Comic-Con International at the beginning of a animation panel that also included his South Park partner Matt Stone, Beavis and Butt-Head creator Mike Judge and actor Andy Samberg, who co-created the animated Digman!

Earlier in the day, the White House issued a statement on the 27th season premiere episode, which aired Wednesday night. Unlike other characters in the animated show, Trump is depicted as an actual photo of the US president on an animated body. There is also an extended scene featuring a hyper-realistic, deepfake video of Trump, completely naked, walking in a desert; and repeated suggestions that Trump’s genitalia are small.
“This show hasn’t been relevant for over 20 years and is hanging on by a thread with uninspired ideas in a desperate attempt for attention,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in the statement. “President Trump has delivered on more promises in just six months than any other president in our country’s history – and no fourth-rate show can derail President Trump’s hot streak.”

From the Oxford Dictionary of Philosophy:

 A self-refuting utterance is one which is shown to be false in the very fact of its being made, as when someone says: ‘I am not now speaking!’; ‘There are no words on this page’; or, more controversially, ‘I am asleep’, or ‘Words have no meaning.’

By issuing a statement attacking South Park for being irrelevant, the Trump White House affirmed that it is indeed relevant. 

Sunday, March 10, 2024

Katie Britt Update

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun. The nomination phase has effectively ended.  With Super Tuesday, the withdrawal of Nikki Haley, and the State of the Union, the general election campaign has begun.  Katie Britt's SOTU response has become a national laughingstock.

Ken Bensinger at NYT:
Ms. Jacinto, who spoke with the Times Saturday from Mexico, said she had not been informed ahead of time that Ms. Britt would be discussing her in the speech and only learned about it after a video pointing out the deceptive framing of the senator’s speech was posted by the independent journalist Jonathan Katz on TikTok on Friday.

“I only found out via social media,” said Ms. Jacinto, who continues to speak frequently about human trafficking and who is supported by a U.S.-based nonprofit, Reintegra, that provides educational grants to victims of sex trafficking in Latin America. “I thought it was very strange.”

She said she preferred to keep politics out of the question of human trafficking. “I am involved in the fight to stop trafficking and I don’t think it should be political,” she said. “The work I do is not a game.”

Monday, February 12, 2024

RFK Ad

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  The 2024 race has begun.

Erin Doherty at Axios:
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. apologized to his family Sunday night after a super PAC backing his presidential bid ran a Super Bowl ad that mirrored a 1960 presidential campaign ad for his uncle, former President John F. Kennedy.

Why it matters: The ad was an extraordinarily expensive investment and generated online buzz for the long-shot presidential candidate who is seeking to boost his national name recognition.

The latest: "I'm so sorry if the Super Bowl advertisement caused anyone in my family pain," Kennedy wrote on X Sunday evening.Kennedy said the ad — which remained pinned at the top of his X page Monday morning — was made without "any involvement or approval" from his campaign.

Between the lines: Many members of Kennedy's family have condemned his decision to run as an independent presidential candidate, fearing that he could siphon off votes from President Biden in the general election.Bobby Shriver, the son of the former president's sister Eunice Kennedy Shriver, said after the ad aired on Sunday that his mother "would be appalled by" the health care views of RFK Jr. "Respect for science, vaccines, & health care equity were in her DNA," Shriver posted on X.

 

Thursday, November 30, 2023

Trump v. TV

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  The 2024 race has begun

He has said similar things before: At the time of the earlier threatPolitico reported:

It’s unclear exactly how Trump could directly challenge a media outlet’s broadcasting license, if he chose to follow through on his veiled threat.

The FCC, an independent federal agency, issues broadcast licenses to stations and oversees license holders. It does not license networks. NBC is owned by Comcast, which holds broadcast licenses for several stations. NBC also airs on affiliate stations owned by other companies.

Local residents or competitors can file a challenge to a station’s license renewal, but the basis for such a challenge is extremely limited — it must be a case where the station systematically violated the FCC’s rules or lacked the requisite “character” to hold the license. That is usually defined as a felony conviction, said Andrew Schwartzman, a communications lawyer with the Institute for Public Representation at Georgetown University Law Center.

“It’s an empty threat. The last thing that NBC is going to worry about is whether its broadcast licenses are in jeopardy,” Schwartzman said.

Thursday, September 7, 2023

DeSantis Money

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun.

DeSantis is doing very very poorly.

 Alex Isenstadt and Jessica Piper at Politico:

Of the 50 donors who gave at least $160,000 in the years leading up to his 2022 reelection campaign, only 16 — less than a third — provided funds to the super PAC Never Back Down, which can receive unlimited contributions, through the end of June. Eight other major donors gave directly to his presidential campaign but not the super PAC.

The top 50 list includes five donors who are now financially supporting rival presidential candidates. And of those who are giving money to the DeSantis campaign or his super PAC, five are splitting their funds with other candidates.

The inability of DeSantis to convert more of his gubernatorial donors into presidential ones is emblematic of a larger shortcoming of his current campaign. And it presents particular problems for the governor precisely because his operation has leaned so heavily on the super PAC to perform basic campaign functions.

Tim Miller explains why relying on a Super PAC is a bad idea:

Political dollars went a long way back in 2000, when, according to Pew, 56 percent of Americans watched their local TV news. That same year, 23 percent got news from this newfangled thing called The Internet with only 3 percent visiting partisan “online magazines like Slate.com or National Review Online.” That meant political campaigns could reach a huge chunk of voters through ads during the morning and evening news broadcasts, where they had a captive DVR-less audience with relatively few other inputs about the state of the campaign.

We could not have a more different information ecosystem going into 2024. Campaign content about the presidential race is being delivered in surround sound to voters every day. From Facebook to TikTok to sports radio shows that are mixed with redpilled punditry, the news environment is all-consuming. For the political partisans most likely to vote in primaries, there is now an entire universe of “news” outlets and social media accounts with massive followings unleashing a firehose of information with questionable veracity to voters through the phone in their pocket every second of the day.

... 

HERE’S THE REALITY: If the Never Back Down PAC had spent every dime that has thus far gone to TV ads and canvassers on sculpting a giant golden idol alongside I-80 in central Iowa that depicts DeSantis kicking an immigrant child in the ass, there is no available evidence that their candidate would be worse off than he is today. Hell, he might even have gained a point or two with the MAGA base for such a lib-owning, Alpha maneuver.

...

This is not to say that TV ads and other traditional tactics are completely worthless in every instance. Nor does it mean that super PACs can’t make a difference in places on the margins by trying to peel off small percentages of swing voters or low-propensity voters. They can. Some of the more creative ones have been successful at doing so.

But that’s not at all what these campaign-approved PACs are trying to achieve. They are attempting to mass communicate to a highly informed, highly engaged partisan electorate and create movement at scale for their candidates. They are doing so amid a cyclone of content about their leading opponent with no plan to address it.

Sending paid door knockers and inside-the-box TV ads into that environment is just pissing into the storm.

And the super PAC TV money does not go far as elections approach.  PACS HAVE TO PAY A LOT MORE FOR TV. FROM RBR:

With this election, your station needs to be ready to comply with all of the FCC’s political advertising rules.

Lowest unit charges (or “Lowest Unit Rates”) guarantee that, in the 45 days before a primary and the 60 days before a general election, legally qualified candidates get the lowest rate for a spot that is then running on the station within any class of advertising time and particular daypart.

...

In modern political elections, where PACs, Super PACs and other non-candidate interest groups are buying much political advertising time, broadcasters need to remember that these spots don’t require lowest unit rates. Even if the picture or recognizable voice of the candidate that the PAC is supporting appears in the ad, spots that are sponsored by an independent organization not authorized by the candidate do not get lowest unit rates (note, however, that spots purchased by independent groups featuring the voice or picture of the candidate may trigger public file and equal opportunities obligations for the station if the station decides to run those spots).  Stations can charge these advertisers anything that the station wants for non-candidate ads – no need to stick to lowest unit rates.

Tuesday, July 11, 2023

Evolving Media and Congressional Troublemakers

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the impact of social media and campaign technology.

Eric Cortellessa at Time reports on  Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL)

To some, she’s a dangerously effective new version of the millennial MAGA politician ready to tear down the institutions of government in pursuit of an ultraconservative revolution. To others, she’s something more, the vanguard of a potentially significant turn in American politics. Luna is less a politician who parlayed her seat in Congress into a huge online following—like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez—than the other way around: the first social media influencer to parlay an online audience into a seat in Congress.
...

Part of Charlie Kirk’s job is to live on the internet. The pro-Trump activist and podcast host created Turning Point USA with the goal of creating an army of influencers to combat what he saw as the left-wing tilt on college campuses and in popular culture. One day in 2018, Kirk was struck by an Instagram video of a ferocious Latina immigration hawk. “It was literally a rant on how the news was full of it and they weren’t being transparent about what actually happens at the border,” Luna says. But the clip caught on like wildfire. “I saw that she was a natural talent from Day One,” Kirk says. He thought Luna had the same kind of magnetism he saw in Candace Owens, his first big discovery. “I realized she really had a spark.”

Kirk called Luna to offer her a job heading Turning Point’s Hispanic outreach operation. Luna was intrigued, but there was one problem. She was about to leave for medical school in Grenada. Kirk, a prodigious fundraiser, told her not to worry. He would reimburse her for the costs.

“That’s where I changed paths,” Luna says.

Back in olden times -- a dozen years ago -- it was cable.  John Boehner recalls:

Besides the homegrown “talent” at Fox, with their choice of guests they were making people who used to be fringe characters into powerful media stars. One of the first prototypes out of their laboratory was a woman named Michele Bachmann.

After the GOP takeover in 2010, she demanded a seat on Ways and Means. Boehner politely declined.

Her response to me was calm and matter-of-fact. “Well, then I’ll just have to go talk to Sean Hannity and everybody at Fox,” she said, “and Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin, and everybody else on the radio, and tell them that this is how John Boehner is treating the people who made it possible for the Republicans to take back the House.”

I wasn’t the one with the power, she was saying. I just thought I was. She had the power now.

She was right, of course.

He assuaged her with a seat on Intelligence. 


 

 

Thursday, May 11, 2023

Trump's CNN Town Hall

Our 2020 book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the partiesThe state of the GOP is not good. Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie And we now know how close he came to subverting the Constitution.

 Lloyd Green at The Guardian:

On Wednesday night, Donald Trump demonstrated why he leads the 2024 Republican field. The audience was his from “hello”. The town hall was a prime-time infomercial. Kaitlan Collins, the moderator, was no match. For good measure, he called her a “nasty person” and questioned her intelligence.

Trump arrived amid a standing ovation and repeatedly tangled with CNN’s Collins. He directed congressional Republicans to go over the fiscal cliff and trigger a default but waffled over a federal abortion ban.

The 45th president repeated the lies that birthed the insurrection and repeatedly asserted the 2016 election was “rigged”. He expressed no remorse for Mike Pence almost winding up on makeshift gallows.

Trump beatified Ashli Babbitt, the Capitol rioter shot dead and committed to pardoning most of the January 6 rioters. For Trump and his minions, law and order hinges on “who” and “whom”. As for E Jean Carroll, Trump ridiculed her and the $5m verdict. She was a “whack job”, he said.

Immigration and energy remain Trump talking points, catnip for independents and working-class voters alike. The Democrats ought to start worrying. In 2020, Covid sapped Trump’s appeal while Biden possessed the luxury of a basement campaign. That’s gone. Trump is a natural counter-puncher. He shows no sign of letting up. 2024 is shaping up as 2016 redux.


Thursday, October 22, 2020

Campaign Money in the Final Days


In Defying the Odds, we discuss campaign finance and campaign technologyThe 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms.

Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman at NYT:
President Trump’s campaign has far less money than advisers had once anticipated for the final stretch of the presidential election, as rosy revenue projections failed to materialize, leaving aides scrambling to address a severe financial disadvantage against Joseph R. Biden Jr. at the race’s most crucial juncture.

To close the budgetary shortfall, Mr. Trump has slashed millions of dollars in previously reserved television ads and detoured from the battleground states that will decide the election for a stop in California last weekend to refill his campaign coffers. He has also tried to jump-start his online fund-raising with increasingly aggressive tactics, sending out as many as 14 email solicitations in a day.

But Mr. Biden still entered October with nearly triple the campaign money as Mr. Trump — $177 million to $63.1 million — and is leveraging that edge to expand the battleground map just as Mr. Trump is forced to retrench.

Despite raising more than $1.5 billion in tandem with the Republican Party since 2019, Mr. Trump is now in the same financial straits as he was four years ago, when Hillary Clinton had roughly double the money he did. The financial pinch has engulfed his advisers and party officials in something of an internal blame game after years of bragging about their fund-raising prowess, according to current and former campaign and administration officials. Republican allies, meanwhile, are wondering where all the money went.

“Campaigns that are trailing two weeks before the election, there is always a lot of finger pointing,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and former adviser on Senator Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign. “And asking where the money went is always the first question.

Marc Caputo and David Siders at Politico:

Billionaire Michael Bloomberg’s $100 million investment in Florida to defeat Donald Trump is recasting the presidential contest in the president’s must-win state, forcing his campaign to spend big to shore up his position and freeing up Democratic cash to expand the electoral map elsewhere.

Bloomberg’s massive advertising and ground-game spending, which began roughly a month ago, has thrown Trump into a defensive crouch across the arc of Sunbelt states. As a result, the president‘s campaign has scaled back its TV ad buys in crucial Northern swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — a vacuum being filled by a constellation of outside political groups backing Joe Biden.

BUT Kevin Robillard reports at HuffPost:

A gigantic fundraising haul and outsized spending by a super PAC led by close allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) have alarmed Senate Democrats, who fear their candidates may be outspent down the stretch of the election despite record grassroots fundraising.

Senate Leadership Fund, the super political action committee controlled by McConnell allies, raised $92 million in September and began October with more than $103 million in the bank, according to a Federal Election Commission report filed Tuesday afternoon. Those huge sums, collected mostly from checks of donors who gave more than $1 million and in some cases have not revealed themselves, have helped Senate Republicans gain a financial edge in several key races.

Over the final days of the election, according to the Democrats tracking media buys, Republicans are set to outspend Democrats on TV in four key Senate races: Michigan, where Democrats are hopeful Sen. Gary Peters can defend his seat against Republican John James; Georgia, where Democrat Jon Ossoff is looking to knock off GOP Sen. David Perdue; Kansas, where Democratic state Sen. Barbara Bollier is battling Rep. Roger Marshall for an open seat; and in South Carolina, where Democrat Jaime Harrison is putting a scare into GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham.

PACS HAVE TO PAY A LOT MORE FOR TV. FROM RBR:

With this election, your station needs to be ready to comply with all of the FCC’s political advertising rules.

Lowest unit charges (or “Lowest Unit Rates”) guarantee that, in the 45 days before a primary and the 60 days before a general election, legally qualified candidates get the lowest rate for a spot that is then running on the station within any class of advertising time and particular daypart.

...

In modern political elections, where PACs, Super PACs and other non-candidate interest groups are buying much political advertising time, broadcasters need to remember that these spots don’t require lowest unit rates. Even if the picture or recognizable voice of the candidate that the PAC is supporting appears in the ad, spots that are sponsored by an independent organization not authorized by the candidate do not get lowest unit rates (note, however, that spots purchased by independent groups featuring the voice or picture of the candidate may trigger public file and equal opportunities obligations for the station if the station decides to run those spots).  Stations can charge these advertisers anything that the station wants for non-candidate ads – no need to stick to lowest unit rates.


 

 

Monday, October 12, 2020

The Lincoln Project

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well underway


Lesley Stahl: Have you given up your careers?
Steve Schmidt: None of us will ever work in Republican politics again. We-- we joke that like some of the explorers who came to the new world, they were incentivized by the captain when he burned the ships that there was-- (LAUGH) there was no return (LAUGH) going back. 

... 

Lesley Stahl: Who are you aiming for? What kind of a voter?
Rick Wilson: So those independent-leaning men, those college-educated Republicans, the suburban Republican women. We understand where these voters are, we understand who they are and how they think. And Lesley, it's a game of small numbers. I mean, Donald Trump won this election by 77,000 votes in three states.
Lesley Stahl: You basically have endorsed Joe Biden.
Reed Galen: We have. We have endorsed Joe Biden. Yes.

"Mourning in America" was a pivotal moment

...
Reed Galen: The President attacked all of us by name. Called us losers. And we raised $2 million in 48 hours.
Lesley Stahl: So he's helping you?
Reed Galen: He bought us instant credibility.
..
Reed Galen: We have a standing buy on Fox News in Washington, D.C. with Fox and Friends, Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity, every night.
Lesley Stahl: Is that because he watches?
Reed Galen: Yes. Because we know he's in the residence with his super TiVo watching.Lesley Stahl: Why is provoking him a good strategy?
Rick Wilson: Every time Donald Trump loses his mind and throws things at the wall because a Lincoln Project ad is up, that takes the whole campaign off track. There's one thing you never get back in a campaign. That's a lost day.
Lesley Stahl: Are you concerned that you're stooping to the president's level of being mean?
Rick Wilson: I hope so. (LAUGH) There's always a reflexive sort of-- do-gooder instinct to say, "Oh, I hate negative ads." People do hate negative ads, but negative ads work.

...

 Mike Madrid: The real dividing line in the Republican Party is between college-educated and non-college-educated voters. And what we're seeing is, when Donald Trump starts to push messages like law and order, or defends, you know, the Confederate flags and Confederate monuments, he does seem to be able to coalesce a small number of non-college-educated workers in the Rust Belt states. But at the same time, he's pushing white, college-educated workers in the Sun Belt states out of his column.

It's a reverse twist on the old Southern strategy where Republicans used racist appeals to attract white voters in the South. And they're trying to capitalize on it.

Mike Madrid: What we see in the South is more and more people in high-tech industries saying, "This is a politics that I reject."


 

Sunday, August 30, 2020

GOP Convention Meh!

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well underway.  

President Trump's Thursday night convention speech making the case for his reelection was lower-rated than his challenger Joe Biden's speech one week ago, according to overnight Nielsen ratings.
About 23.8 million viewers watched coverage of Trump's RNC address across thirteen cable and broadcast networks, down from 24.6 million viewers who watched Biden's DNC address on twelve of those same networks.
The gap between Biden and Trump was wider earlier in the day, when fewer networks were counted in the total. Nielsen released its final audience estimate late on Friday afternoon, bringing Trump within a million viewers. Still, Biden clearly edged out Trump.
The Democratic convention was also higher-rated than the Republican convention overall when the audience for all four days is tallied up.
Kendall Karson at ABC:
President Donald Trump's efforts to build his appeal and define his opponent at the Republican National Convention, using pageantry and the White House as the backdrop, had little apparent impact on the electorate's impressions of both him and former Vice President Joe Biden, a new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds.
Trump's week of celebration did not improve his favorability, even among his own base, and the country still remains widely critical of his handling of the major crisis of his presidency: COVID-19.
Less than one-third (31%) of the country has a favorable view of the president in the days after he accepted the Republican nomination for the second time -- a stagnant reality for Trump. His favorability rating stood at 32% in the last poll, taken a week earlier, right after the Democratic National Convention.

Trump finds himself in a much different position than his chief rival.
In the new survey, which was conducted using Ipsos' KnowledgePanel, Biden's favorability remains higher than his unfavorability, 46% to 40%, solidifying his improvement in favorability from last week, when attitudes about the Democratic nominee improved to a net positive from his slightly underwater position prior to the convention.
Biden's favorability ticked up from 40% in an Aug. 13 poll to 45% just after the Democratic convention.

Wednesday, July 8, 2020

Trump Outspending Biden ... To Little Effect

In Defying the Odds, we discuss campaign finance and campaign technologyThe 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms.

Ian Karbal at Open Secrets:
President Donald Trump’s 2020 television and digital media advertisements show a candidate on the offensive, making an aggressive push to get in front of viewers with swipes at his political opposition. The president has massively outspent presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden in TV ads, and by a shrinking margin online.

Between May 11 and June 28, nearly 85,000 TV ads costing a combined $51 million were broadcast across America in the 2020 presidential race. Over 50,000 were purchased by Trump’s campaign, and another 11,600 by outside groups that support him — a major increase since the beginning of 2019. That’s according to a new analysis from the Wesleyan Media Project in partnership with OpenSecrets.
The Trump campaign shows no sign of relenting. Between June 26 and July 2, Trump pre-booked $113 million in television ads in key swing states Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin.
Trump launched his first Spanish language broadcast TV ad of the election cycle last week, targeting Arizona and Florida, after Biden began ramping up spending in the states last month. Trump has already run digital ads in Spanish and Biden ran a number on broadcast TV during the primary.

Biden’s campaign has been saving its money. Biden aired just 3,100 broadcast TV ads in the same period, perhaps a sign of commitment to his lay-low-and-let-Trump-talk campaign strategy. Outside groups made up some ground for Biden, airing nearly 20,000 ads for the Democratic candidate. The groups are led in spending by Priorities USA, a liberal hybrid PAC that aired over 13,000 TV ads at a price of nearly $7 million.

Bidens leads Trump by 8.7 percent in the RCP average.

Friday, February 21, 2020

Debate Fallout

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well under way.

Dino-Ray Ramos at Deadline:
The latest Democratic presidential debate drew a record 19.7 million viewers for NBC News and MSNBC.
The networks said that it was the most watched Democratic debate in history. It also topped the 18.1 million who watched the second night of the Democratic debate in June. That event was broadcast by NBC News, MSNBC and Telemundo.
NBC said that the debate generated 13.5 million live video streams and 22 million video views across all platforms. The network said that it translated into an average audience of 417,000 viewers.
The numbers are fast national figures from Nielsen.
 Matt Flegenheimer, Alexander Burns and Jeremy W. Peters at NYT:
Michael R. Bloomberg had put in the hours, his people said — holding mock debate sessions with top aides and meeting at length to prepare in New York and Palm Springs, Calif.
His campaign had anticipated the unsurprising questions about allegations of a hostile workplace for women at his company, stop-and-frisk policing in his city, the unseemliness of a Democratic contender who has long written checks to Republicans. And Mr. Bloomberg recognized that he would have to answer them, or at least deflect serviceably enough to survive.
But Mr. Bloomberg’s debate performance on Wednesday proved so lackluster that both supporters and rivals counted themselves taken aback, leaving his campaign more rattled than at any point since he entered the race. While Mr. Bloomberg sought to project a steely calm on Thursday during a swing through Utah, he and his team have been left to explain away a comedown that exposed some of his gravest liabilities.

Thursday, January 23, 2020

Bloomberg and Trump

In Defying the Oddswe discuss campaign strategy and 0rganization  The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms.  

At Axios, Mike Allen and Margaret Talev report that Bloomberg is emulating Trump's campaign methods:
  • Social creature: Trump's re-election campaign has deployed Facebook in a bigger way than any campaign in history, outspending all the Democrats combined. Bloomberg's team openly admires the digital prowess of Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale and has built a "content factory" of constantly updating and iterating videos and messages that are narrowly targeted at — and constantly fed to — promising prospects.
  • Ubiquity: Trump forced himself into our lives with Twitter taunts and endless TV appearances. Bloomberg is buying his way into the minute-by-minute of our lives with TV ads. Bloomberg's team believes one of the key lessons of Trump campaign is that if voters see you on TV all the time, they'll take you seriously. At Bloomberg HQ, his TV ads play on a constant loop. It takes a while to realize it's not cable news, where his ads seem nearly as persistent.
  • Success sells: Like Trump, Bloomberg promises ad nauseam to replicate his professional success in governance. Many of Bloomberg's ads follow the rough arc of: 1) Hit Trump ... 2) Why the problem matters ... 3) What Mike did as New York mayor ... 4) What Mike would do as president. It's a key part of Bloomberg's effort to signal, both overtly and subliminally, that he's running against Trump — not the other Dems.
  • Slogan power: Bloomberg's massive data operation found that Bloomberg's record as mayor was one of his big selling points. And Bloomberg's inner circle thought "Make America Great Again" was an effective slogan. Voilà, the Bloomberg slogan: "Mike Will Get It Done." The twist: "It" can mean beating Trump, enacting gun control as president, or whatever the voter imagines.
  • It's all about brand, baby: Bloomberg, like Trump, has set up his campaign so his personal brand shines, win or lose. The former mayor is making plain he will spend up to $2 billion to win himself — or, if he loses, allocate some of that to the Democratic nominee and Bloomberg's pet causes. As a down payment, he's showering money on state and local parties to help them, up and down their tickets, regardless of who wins the primary.
Billionaire presidential long shot Michael Bloomberg is trying to poach staff from other campaigns with outsized salaries and fancy perks like three catered meals a day, an iPhone 11 and a MacBook Pro, according to sources.
Bloomberg is paying state press secretaries $10,000 a month, compared to the average going rate of $4,500 for other candidates and state political directors are making $12,000 a month, more than some senior campaign advisers earn, sources said.
National political director Carlos Sanchez pulls in $360,000 a year. Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s political director, made $240,000 in 2016.
Every Bloomberg staffer gets a MacBook Pro and an iPhone 11 on day one. They also enjoy three catered meals daily.

Sunday, February 17, 2019

Retribution

In Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's dishonesty and his record of disregarding the rule of law.  In our forthcoming update, we bring the story up through the 2018 election.

 
In his 2019 State of the Union, he said:  "But we must reject the politics of revenge, resistance, and retribution, and embrace the boundless potential of cooperation, compromise, and the common good."

But seriously ... Trump is into retribution.

Saturday, September 22, 2018

Gosar Family Values

In Defying the Odds, we discuss congressional elections as well as the presidential race

Bloomberg reporter (and CMC alum) Sahil Kapur:



Ronald J. Hansen at The Arizona Republic:
Six of U.S. Rep. Paul Gosar's siblings have appeared in online ads asking Arizona voters to back David Brill, their brother's Democratic opponent in November.
The stunning public endorsement underscores the family's rancorous relationship with the conservative firebrand who has represented Arizona's 4th Congressional District since 2011.
"It would be difficult to see my brother as anything but a racist," sister Grace Gosar says in an ad for Brill.
"I think my brother has traded a lot of the values we had at our kitchen table," sister Joan Gosar says in another.
READ MORE: Gosar supports U.K. activist seen as bigot


The public estrangement of Gosar from his brothers and sisters first became publicly known a year ago, when they expressed their dismay for Gosar's political views in a letter to the Kingman Daily Miner.

But the family's latest intervention in Gosar's political career reveals the depths of the gap between one of the most conservative members of Congress and the people who have known him all of his life.