NY3 and PA: A Good Night for Democrats

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. 

The past year has been very good for Democrats.

In a special election last night, Tom Suozzi won NY3, the seat that George Santos had held.  Despite predictions of a "nailbiter," the result was a comfortable 54-46.

Hannah Knowles and Julie Zauzmer Weil at WP:

National issues dominated the campaign, making Tuesday’s vote this year’s first high-profile test of the parties’ messages on abortion, the economy and, above all, immigration. Suozzi represented the area for six years previously and campaigned as a moderate who wanted to work across the aisle. But with New York City struggling to absorb more than 100,000 migrants arriving from the southern border, much of the campaign centered on what polling suggests is Democrats’ toughest issue.

Democrat Jim Prokopiak was also projected to win a Tuesday special election for a state House seat in Pennsylvania, building his party’s narrow edge in a chamber that until recently was deadlocked 101-101. He beat Candace Cabanas after tying her to Trump and what he called “extremists” in the GOP, echoing national Democrats’ 2024 message.

In New York, Suozzi’s victory capped a long list of Democratic wins in recent special elections, which have showcased the party’s ability to turn out its base and tap into anger at GOP-backed abortion restrictions since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Democrats spent millions of dollars attacking Pilip’s “pro-life” stance even though she said she would not support a national ban on abortion.

The victory also validated Suozzi’s decision to invest heavily in countering the GOP on immigration, suggesting that Democrats in tight races can benefit from talking tougher on the border and highlighting Republicans’ abrupt abandonment of a bipartisan deal on the matter negotiated in Congress. Biden, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and other Democrats have similarly sought to go on offense on immigration by criticizing the deal’s failure.

Trump, of course, dishonestly blamed the R candidate:

 

As expected, Trump blames everyone but himself for the election loss tonight. Trump claimed Mazi Pilip lost because “she didn't endorse me.”

This is a lie. Pilip said she voted for Trump in 2020 and endorsed him for the 2024 election. #NY03 pic.twitter.com/aiPuizqBuM

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) February 14, 2024

Haley Sharpens Attack on Trump

 Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun. The nomination phase has effectively ended, but Trump is still raging. Over the weekend, he invited Putin to attack NATO and insulted Nikki Haley's deployed husband.

Nikki Haley on Trump's invitation to Putin to attack NATO countries:

"It made me sick to my stomach...He just put every military member at risk and every one of our allies at risk just by saying something at a rally." pic.twitter.com/x6rmDiQr3S

— Republican Accountability (@AccountableGOP) February 12, 2024

Nikki Haley: “Every bit of it is disgusting. To sit there and mock my husband for not being with me on the presidential trail because he is deployed and serving our country...The reality is, the closest [Trump] has come to harm’s way is a golf ball hitting him on a golf cart.” pic.twitter.com/Goca3yBJvB

— Republican Accountability (@AccountableGOP) February 12, 2024

RFK Ad

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  The 2024 race has begun.

Erin Doherty at Axios:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. apologized to his family Sunday night after a super PAC backing his presidential bid ran a Super Bowl ad that mirrored a 1960 presidential campaign ad for his uncle, former President John F. Kennedy.

Why it matters: The ad was an extraordinarily expensive investment and generated online buzz for the long-shot presidential candidate who is seeking to boost his national name recognition.

The latest: "I'm so sorry if the Super Bowl advertisement caused anyone in my family pain," Kennedy wrote on X Sunday evening.Kennedy said the ad — which remained pinned at the top of his X page Monday morning — was made without "any involvement or approval" from his campaign.

Between the lines: Many members of Kennedy's family have condemned his decision to run as an independent presidential candidate, fearing that he could siphon off votes from President Biden in the general election.Bobby Shriver, the son of the former president's sister Eunice Kennedy Shriver, said after the ad aired on Sunday that his mother "would be appalled by" the health care views of RFK Jr. "Respect for science, vaccines, & health care equity were in her DNA," Shriver posted on X.

 

Learn more: https://t.co/4YjLwreZN9 pic.twitter.com/JLEPW7H901

— American Values 2024 (@AmValues2024) February 12, 2024

Trump Invites Russian Attack, Disrepects Deployed Guardsman

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses foreign influence and Trump's attack on democracy.  Russia helped Trump through 2020.  As Russia began its latest invasion of Ukraine, Trump lavished praise on Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. 

Yesterday, he suggested that Russia should attack NATO allies.

Trump: One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, Well, sir, if we don't pay and were attacked by Russia, will you protect us? I said.. No I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. pic.twitter.com/2RPVDFZIXy

— Acyn (@Acyn) February 10, 2024

Major Michael Haley is deployed in Africa with the U.S. Army National Guard. Which Trump cannot comprehend, as the idea of volunteering to serve our country is so far from his experience or imagination. https://t.co/nTqZHqJKAm

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) February 10, 2024

Either Donald Trump is openly insulting military families, or he got confused again and doesn’t know my husband is deployed. Either way, he isn’t up to the task of leading the greatest fighting force in the world. pic.twitter.com/CQQ9pN9qYZ

— Nikki Haley (@NikkiHaley) February 11, 2024

The Biden Cocoon

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun.  It is a fight between two very old men.

Jonathan V. Last: "When people say Biden is “old” what they mean is “frail.” Trump is functionally the same age as a Biden, with a much worse BMI and cognitive functioning. But because Trump can yell at the moon like a mad dog, people see him as “vigorous” and age isn’t a problem.

Katie Rogers and Lisa Lerer at NYT:

Aides have President Biden take the shorter stairs to board Air Force One. When it comes to news conferences, they yell loudly — and quickly — to end the questions, sometimes stealing a classic awards show tactic and playing loud music to signal the conclusion of the event. And forget about regular interviews with major news publications, including a traditional presidential sit-down on Super Bowl Sunday.

Over the years, some of Mr. Biden’s key aides have gone from letting “Joe be Joe” to wrapping a presidential cocoon around him that is intended to shield him from verbal slips and physical stumbles.

All presidents are shielded by the strictures of the office, yet for Mr. Biden, who at 81 is the oldest person in history to hold the job, the decision is not only situational but strategic, according to several people who are familiar with the dynamic. The cloistered nature of his White House reflects a concern among some of his top aides that Mr. Biden, who has always been prone to gaffes, risks making a mistake.

"Elderly Man with a Poor Memory"

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun.  It is a fight between two very old men.

Shane Goldmacher, Reid J. Epstein and Katie Glueck at NYT:

When President Biden appeared at a last-minute news conference on Thursday night, he hoped to assure the country of his mental acuity hours after a special counsel’s report had devastatingly referred to him as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”

Instead, a visibly angry Mr. Biden made the exact type of verbal flub that has kept Democrats so nervous for months, mistakenly referring to the president of Egypt, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, as the “president of Mexico” as he tried to address the latest developments in the war in Gaza.

The special counsel’s report and the president’s evening performance placed Mr. Biden’s advanced age, the singularly uncomfortable subject looming over his re-election bid, back at the center of America’s political conversation.

The 81-year-old president — already the oldest in the nation’s history — has for years fought the perception that he is a diminished figure. “My memory is fine,” he insisted on Thursday from the White House.

Third-Party Threat to Biden

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun.

Michael Scherer at WP:

The Democratic National Committee hired a new communications adviser last month to counter the third-party candidates, while outside groups working for Biden’s election have been having discussions about a new organization that could coordinate about the wide range of threats.

A recent five-way national poll by Quinnipiac University that named Biden, former president Donald Trump, attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr., scholar Cornel West and activist Jill Stein showed the combined third-party candidates drawing nearly 1 in 5 voters. A separate effort, by the bipartisan group No Labels, continues to move forward in its search for candidates that could challenge the major-party duopoly.

That polling, combined with increased activism on the left in reaction to Israel’s war in Gaza, has provided a boost to outsiders who are traveling the country in an uphill battle to gain ballot access. Kennedy is seeking to establish a new We the People party with candidates who can run downballot of him in some states, while West has launched a less-well-funded effort to create the Justice for All party, and Stein has sought to expand the reach of the Green Party.

All three candidates are expected to attend this month’s California convention of the Libertarian Party, which aims to have access to nearly all state ballots by November. Kennedy has not committed to pursuing the Libertarian ballot line, though he has been courting the group while independently seeking ballot access. Advisers say he will deliver a speech soon to address concerns both among leftist activists and libertarians that his approach to Israel is too hawkish.