GOP Decline in California

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race. The forthcoming update will include a chapter on the 2018 midterms.  California is an important part of the story.

Mike Madrid at The Fresno Bee:

Unlike the wealthy and racially segregated suburbs in Orange County, north San Diego and the outskirts of Los Angeles, the Central Valley has neighborhoods with middle- and lower-income households with both Anglo and Latino surnames.

Because the Central Valley continues to suffer while its coastal neighbors thrive, it’s here that poses the greatest prospect for a Republican resurgence if the party could focus on its core message of jobs, opportunity and economic mobility.

...
The Fresno County Republican Party invited the controversial and inflammatory Arizona Sherriff Joe Arpaio to keynote an event just months before the midterm elections. This is the same person who was found by the U.S. Department of Justice to have engaged in the worst pattern of racial profiling in U.S. history and it filed suit against him for unlawful discriminatory police conduct. And then in 2016 Arpaio was summarily removed from office by his constituents.

In other words, Arapaio was found to be unfit for office by the people who knew him best, but was found to be just right to keynote a Republican Party event in Fresno — a county that is only 30 percent white.

If Republicans in California are looking for a way back to relevance, dropping the focus on race-based politics is a good place to start. If that change can’t happen in the Central Valley, it’s not likely to happen anywhere.

Laurel Rosenhall at CALMatters:

Not that anyone need more evidence of the Republican Party’s collapse in California. Democrats, in the last election, flipped seven GOP seats in the U.S. House and eight more in the state Legislature. They’ve swept every statewide office since 2010.

But more evidence emerged anyway today, when Republican Assemblyman Brian Maienschein of San Diego announced that he had switched parties and is now a Democrat. A reliably moderate Republican during his six years in the Legislature, Maienschein said his own views had moved to the left as his party veers hard right.

“Donald Trump has led the Republican party to the extreme on issues that divide our country. But its leadership is not the only reason for changing my party affiliation,” Maienschein said, citing his support for gay rights, abortion access, organized labor, gun control and immigration.

...

The assemblyman’s switch is the latest sign that the style of Republican politics emanating from the White House does not play well on the left coast. Last month, California saw another high-profile GOP defection when Tani Cantil-Sakauye, the chief justice of the state Supreme Court, said she had re-registered without party affiliation following the tumultuous confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh, Trump’s pick for the U.S. Supreme Court.

Brian Maienschein is a good man with a principled heart. He’s a great legislator that represents his district well. I’m sure this decision did not come easy for him. He didn’t leave the Republican Party, the Party left him. @BMaienschein @CAGOP

— Chad Mayes (@ChadMayes) January 24, 2019

Mark my words: If Travis Allen becomes Chairman of the California Republican Party, more sitting legislators will leave @CAGOP. Winning in politics requires addition. Demagoguery and division proves to be a losing strategy. https://t.co/26sd4J8pIl

— Chad Mayes (@ChadMayes) January 24, 2019

Californians Quitting the GOP

In  Defying the Odds, we explain that Trump and his allies have renounced the conservatism of Ronald Reagan.

Emily Duruy at The San Jose Mercury News:

Citing the Trump administration’s treatment of migrant families, two San Jose City Council members announced Monday they have left the Republican Party.

District 6 Councilwoman Dev Davis and District 10 Councilman Johnny Khamis, joined by former Assemblyman Jim Cunneen, called out national GOP leadership for failing to stand up to what they see as President Trump’s “unethical” policies at a news conference outside City Hall, saying they no longer recognize the party they joined years ago.

The announcement leaves just one Republican — District 4 Councilman Lan Diep — on the council, and could have repercussions with local Republican leadership come election time. While San Jose’s city elections are considered non-partisan, local GOP leaders have helped both Davis and Khamis get elected in the past, and would likely support them in future elections if they stayed in the party.

Khamis acknowledged the risks, but said his “conscience” is more important.

An immigrant who fled war-torn Lebanon as a young boy, Khamis said he “cannot imagine being separated from my mom and dad after losing our home in a war and entering a strange country.”

The Trump administration separated more than 2,000 migrant children from their families at the U.S.-Mexico border before reversing course amid public outcry this month.

“I am not leaving the party,” Khamis said in a reference to his flight from the GOP. “I feel that the party has left me.”

Former California Assemblyman Jim Cunneen:

I want to start by expressing my gratitude to the Republican Party for all it has done for me spanning four decades and share that I will never regret the many contributions that I have made to the Party over that time as a campaign volunteer, President of the Young Republicans, a top aide to Republican officeholders, a State Assemblyman, and a Delegate to a national Republican Nominating Convention. I still applaud the wonderful and good people who volunteer for our Party at the state and local level. My actions today are aimed at what has become of a once great national political party. In May, former House Speaker John Boehner captured it perfectly, saying “There is no Republican Party, only a Trump Party”. A cult of personality has infected the Party we joined and loved. Many Republican friends now defend every criticism of President Trump. And many seem to cheer upon every exit from the once great Republican Party. They say Supreme Court appointments, tough border policies and tax cuts show that Trump is the right President for our times. I say, and I want to make myself clear, no perceived policy “victory” is worth the bigotry, the lies, the near idolatry of world dictators, the mocking of the disabled, or the way he speaks of women. And President Trump pursues so many policies, contrary to the tenets of a once great Party. The forced separation of families at our borders is not conservative. It is indecent. Protectionism is a great lie that hurts consumers. Undermining law enforcement agencies is misguided. Enacting deep tax cuts, less aimed at economic growth and more to punish political enemies, only limits stimulus options in a future recession. A foreign policy embracing enemies and shunning allies is reckless. This is Trumpism. And it is a great affliction to the national Republican Party and our country. But speaking out and standing up — and I have loudly since the day his candidacy was announced— only go so far. Sometimes, all you really have left...well, are the things only YOU can change. Today, after 39 years and one month as a registered Republican, after supporting every GOP nominee for President up to 2016 and Governor up to 2018 — every one of them — I am no longer a registered Republican.

State Legislative Switches

On election night, it appeared that Democrats had scored a net gain of four state legislative chambers. Because of post-election switches, however, that number is now down to two.  Coalitions of Republicans and maverick Democrats will now control the state senates in New York and Washington State.

Earlier this month, Stateline reported:

Voters in Washington State last month elected a state Senate with 26 Democrats and 23 Republicans. But starting next month, those Republicans will serve in the chamber’s majority after a coup Monday (December 10) that will bring a bipartisan coalition to power. 

Two centrist Democratic senators, Rodney Tom and Tim Sheldon, announced they had banded together with the Republicans to form the new “Majority Coalition Caucus.” The two Democrats will serve in the chamber’s top positions. Tom, a former Republican who became a Democrat in 2006, will lead the Senate as majority leader. Sheldon will serve as president pro tempore. 

Under the plan, Republicans and Democrats will split committee chairmanships, but, as Publicola reported, Republicans will lead many of the committees that are considered most important, including K-12 Education and the budget-writing Ways and Means Committee. 

The coalition presented the arrangement as a way for Republicans and Democrats to join together to solve the state’s problems. “We are Washington State, not Washington, D.C.,” the group wrote in a statement laying out its principles. “We commit ourselves to establishing a style of lawmaking that promotes policy over politics, an approach seen all too rarely in politics today.”

The New York Times adds today:

Here in the capital, legislative staff members and senators alike were pondering where they stood, and where they might sit — office space in the new power-sharing arrangement being one of the unknowns of the holiday season. What seemed increasingly clear, though, is that in the coalition agreement, Mr. Sheldon and Mr. Tom had achieved a kind of coup within a coup, silencing Republican social conservatives on one hand and distancing Seattle Democrats on the other, all in one karate chop.

In New York, The Legislative Gazette reported:

Control of the state Senate during the upcoming session will be shared between Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos, and Sen. Jeff Klein, the de facto leader of a five-member independent conference, all but eliminating the power of the Senate Democrats for the time being. 

The two conference leaders together will administer "joint and equal authority" over the daily Senate agenda, the state budget process, board appointments, committee assignments and leadership posts. The title of "Temporary President" will alternate between Skelos and Klein every two weeks.

The Switcher List

The following Democratic state legislators have switched to the GOP since the midterm:

1. Representative Allan Boothe – Alabama House

2. Representative Steve Hurst – Alabama House

3. Representative Mike Millican –Alabama House

4. Representative Lesley Vance – Alabama House

5. Senator Tim Golden – Georgia Senate

6. Representative Ellis Black – Georgia House

7. Representative Amy Carter – Georgia House

8. Representative Mike Cheokas – Georgia House

9. Representative Bubber Epps – Georgia House

10. Representative Gerald Greene – Georgia House

11. Representative Bob Hanner – Georgia House

12. Representative Doug McKillip – Georgia House

13. Representative Alan Powell – Georgia House

14. Senator Chris Steineger – Kansas Senate

15. Senator John Alario – Louisiana Senate

16. Senator John Smith – Louisiana Senate

17. Representative Noble Ellington – Louisiana Senate

18. Representative Walker Hines – Louisiana House

19. Representative Fred Mills – Louisiana House

20. Representative Michael Willette – Maine House

21. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith – Mississippi Senate

22. Representative Bobby Shows – Mississippi House

23. Senator Eldon Nygarrd – South Dakota Senate

24. Representative Allan Ritter – Texas House

25. Representative Aaron Pena – Texas House

Switch in the Not-So-Blue-Anymore Bayou

AP reports:

Another prominent Louisiana Democrat has officially switched his party affiliation to the GOP, giving Republicans a majority control of the state House for the first time since Reconstruction.

State Rep. Noble Ellington said last week he was "95 percent sure" he would be joining the Republican Party and GOP Chairman Roger Villere confirmed the switch Friday.

"For more than 100 years the Louisiana House of Representatives has remained under Democrat control, but today that has all come to an end," Villere said in a statement. "In just three short years a 16-seat Democrat majority has been erased and Rep. Ellington's decision to become the 53rd Republican in the House gives the GOP our first controlling majority in that body since Reconstruction.

"This is a great and historic day for the Republican Party of Louisiana and I'm pleased to welcome Rep. Ellington to the new conservative majority in the House."

Louisiana is not the only southern state where Democrats are defecting.

In Alabama, four Democrats announced last month they were joining the GOP, giving Republicans a supermajority in the House that allows them to pass legislation without any support from the other party. In Georgia, eight Democratic state lawmakers have switched allegiance to the GOP since Nov. 2.

The Switch Goes On

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports:

Two African-American Democrats on Thursday announced that they were joining the Republican Party.

Hall County Commissioner Ashley Bell and former state executive committee member Andre Walker said the Democratic Party had grown too liberal and they are finding a new home with the Republicans.

The state GOP touted Bell as the first black elected official in modern times in Georgia to leave the Democrats for the GOP. But that distinction belongs to former state Sen. Roy Allen of Savannah, who joined the Republican Party in 1994.

Bell was introduced as a Republican at a news conference Thursday at party headquarters.

“My district is pretty Republican as it is,” Bell told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “My wife and I have been thinking about this for six months.”

The Austin American-Statesman reports:

State Rep. Aaron Pena, D-Edinburg, is considering switching to the Republican Party, he told the online Rio Grande Guardian in an interview posted Friday night.

After Texas Monthly’s Paul Burka mentioned rumors of a Pena party switch on his blog earlier this week, Pena received a flood of calls from Democrats and Republicans, he said. (Burka quickly took down his post.)

“Many of the Democrats are still thinking the party can be reformed and that perhaps, in a decade, we can be competitive again,” Pena said. “Many of the calls from Republicans, including lawmakers, were that our community can still have a seat at the table now. Why wait a decade when you can have opportunities now? And so, after the large number of calls today and the growing speculation, I can say I am taking the matter under consideration and I will issue a public statement in the coming days, one way or the other. I am who I am and my intention is to represent my community and to give them the best possible advantage under the current environment.”

The Merrillville [IN] Post-Tribune reports:

Two of the town's elected officials have switched parties.

Clerk-Treasurer Amy Sund and Councilman John Foreman have declared they are joining the Republican Party, Lake County GOP Chairwoman Kim Krull said in a news release.

"With the huge wins we had last month and the organization we are putting together I am sure we will see more people interested in joining the Republican Party," Krull said.

Sund, who has worked in the clerk's office nine years and is in her first term as clerk-treasurer, said she had been thinking about the switch for several months.

"I'm fiscally conservative," Sund said. "I have no problem with the local Democratic Party, but there appears a lack of leadership and organization. I prefer to be with people who are more organized and work together as a team."

Switchers

The Majority in Mississippi blog reports:

Generally when we see elections that result in major shifts in power, we will subsequently see party-switching not long after. Although he waited about a year after Republicans won control of Congress in 1994, former Rep. Mike Parker changed parties in the old Fourth District. Parker wasn’t the only one.

We are seeing similar stories this year, on the state level so far.

- In Georgia (here and here), where Republicans expanded their majority in both houses on November 2, five Democrats- mainly from rural Georgia (once a stronghold of conservative Democrats) have switched parties to give the GOP a near supermajority in the state House.

- In Alabama, where Republicans recently won a majority in both houses for the first time since Reconstruction, four Democrats switched parties yesterday to join the Republican majority.

- And in Louisiana, a state Representative has changed parties in a move that will give the GOP a majority in the state House for the first time in modern history.

We have seen three Democrats change parties in the Mississippi House since their last election in 2007. If Republicans were to win a number of seats in the body next year, I wouldn’t be shocked to see some party-switchers shortly after.

In South Dakota, the Daily Republic reported on 11-19:

The South Dakota Republican Party announced Thursday that District 17 state senator-elect Eldon Nygaard, of Vermillion, has switched his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican.

The switch bumps the Republican advantage in the Senate to 30-5

Switchers

At Politico, Jonathan Martin reports:

When Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Parker Griffith decided to switch parties, they were welcomed with open arms by their new political families in Washington.

But when each returned home to face the voters of his new party, the door was slammed in his face.

That both were so soundly rejected before they even got to the general election — Griffith's defeat in Alabama on Tuesday wasn't even close — illustrates the growing disconnect in both parties between the national political establishment and the grass-roots activists who typically decide primary elections, and between the conventional goals of the national parties and the loftier aims of the rank and file.

In an era of decentralized power, well-informed voters and heightened polarization, primary voters seem intent on making up their own minds and creating a party in their own image, thank you very much. And they're willing to risk a majority to do it.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0610/38020.html#ixzz0po5KOWkr

The contrast with 1994 is evident. After the GOP takeover of Congress, several Democratic House members and a couple of senators (Shelby of Alabama and Campbell of Colorado) switched sides, bolstering the new majority's strength. There had been speculation that if the Republicans fell just short of a majority in 2010, some moderate and conservative Democrats might cross the aisle to put them over the top. But now they might balk at doing so, for fear of losing their seats in 2012.