Great Online Ad in Arkansas Governor Race

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.  

Random Moments on Twitter

In Defying the Odds, we discuss congressional elections as well as the presidential race.

 Harley Rouda

Harley Rouda is running against 'Putin's favorite congressman' who calls climate change a fraud pic.twitter.com/NycRQsIigC

— NowThis (@nowthisnews) October 18, 2018

Jason Lewis

After we reached out to GOP Rep. Jason Lewis’ campaign about the audio mocking women who were traumatized by unwanted touching/kissing, we got a letter threatening legal action if we used the audio. We are still embedding it in the article under fair use: https://t.co/UhLZggTdxq

— 💀andrew👻kaczynski🎃 (@KFILE) October 19, 2018

French Hill

Worth noting this ad comes from a group whose treasurer is a guy with no connection to French Hill's campaign who has a history of running provocative content just for attention and making money in the process https://t.co/Yg9qDusb60

— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) October 18, 2018

Trump, Harassment, and Rape

Andrew Kaczynski reports at Buzzfeed:

Donald Trump, who repeatedly advocated for Mike Tyson during the boxer’s 1992 rape trial in Indiana, said on Monday that he knows nothing about it.

“Do you still think Mike Tyson got a raw deal when he endorsed you?” Trump was asked.

“I don’t know anything about it. I know he endorsed me. I heard he endorsed me,” Trump stated. “I don’t know anything about his trial. I really don’t.”

Trump, a longtime friend of Tyson, opined at length about the trial on television, in newspapers, and in magazines.

Alana Horowitz Satlin writes at The Huffington Post:

Donald Trump continued his apparent push to alienate all women voters by comparing the U.S.’s relationship with China to rape.

“We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country, and that’s what they’re doing,” he said at a rally Sunday. “It’s the greatest theft in the history of the world.”

The “rape” he was referring was the trade deficit between the two countries, not an actual act of sexual assault. Advocates against sexual violence sharply criticized the Republican presidential front-runner’s comments.
...
“Using the word ‘rape’ to describe anything other than sexual violence trivializes the experience of survivors,” added Colleen Daly, a spokeswoman for the group End Rape on Campus. “The statement perpetuates our cultural indifference to rape and desensitizes us to all forms of sexual violence.”
...
Trump has spoken flippantly about rape before. After past allegations that Trump assaulted ex-wife Ivana resurfaced last year, his lawyer claimed that “you cannot rape your spouse.” In reality, over half of all women who report being raped identify their partner as the attacker, data from the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention shows. 

Mark Hensch reports at The Hill:

A Democrat in Arkansas’s Senate race on Monday released a campaign ad documenting some of Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump’s comments about women. 

 “Donald Trump has repeatedly spouted offensive comments denigrating women,” Conner Eldridge said in a statement. "This has to be called out for what it is: serial harassment.

 “I’ve prosecuted domestic violence and cases in which criminals have harassed and abused women in horrible ways, including verbally,” continued Eldridge, a former U.S. attorney. “A senator should strongly condemn these comments. Instead, Sen. [John] Boozman [R-Ark.] is an enabler of Donald Trump’s reprehensible behavior.

Refugee Politics

Margaret Talev reports at Bloomberg:

Most Americans want the U.S. to stop letting in Syrian refugees amid fears of terrorist infiltrations after the Paris attacks, siding with Republican presidential candidates, governors, and lawmakers who want to freeze the Obama administration’s resettlement program.

The findings are part of a Bloomberg Politics national poll released Wednesday that also shows the nation divided on whether to send U.S. troops to Iraq and Syria to fight the Islamic State, an idea President Barack Obama opposes, and whether the U.S. government is doing enough to protect the homeland from a comparable attack.

Fifty-three percent of U.S. adults in the survey, conducted in the days immediately following the attacks, say the nation should not continue a program to resettle up to 10,000 Syrian refugees. Just 28 percent would keep the program with the screening process as it now exists, while 11 percent said they would favor a limited program to accept only Syrian Christians while excluding Muslims, a proposal Obama has dismissed as “shameful” and un-American.

David A. Graham writes at The Atlantic:

Between April and October of 1980, amid an economic downturn, Fidel Castro announced that Cubans who wanted to leave could do so. It precipitated a mass exodus toward the United States. Around 125,000 Cubans fled the island in the Mariel boatlift. The question was what to do with them once they arrived. After all, huge infusions of refugees are often unwelcome, and rumors that the “Marielitos” included many released criminals made many Americans even less welcoming.

In May, President Jimmy Carter informed Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, then nearing the end of his first term in office, that 20,000 of the immigrants would be housed temporarily at Fort Chaffee in northwest Arkansas. Clinton backed the move by his fellow Democrat publicly, but was privately furious: “How could you do this to me? I busted my ass for Carter. You’re gonna get me beat.” Once they’d arrived, the resettlement process ground to a halt, and in June, a riot erupted, and Clinton called out the National Guard. Several months later, as he’d predicted Clinton lost his bid for reelection to Frank White, a first-time candidate for office. In the same election, Carter lost the White House. The story turned out happily for Clinton, who defeated White in 1982 and went on to become president, but Carter and Clinton reportedly still dislike each other.

The Fort Chaffee story is largely forgotten by the general public, but it’s a good bet that some governors haven’t forgotten its political lessons.

PAC Bravery

At Open Secrets, Russ Choma and Doug Weber reports on PACs that switched sides after the election:

With a notable list of upsets in the 2014 election, particularly in the Senate, disclosure filings from PACs for late 2014 show a particularly energetic effort to show support for the winners who knocked out the candidates they had invested so much in just weeks earlier. According to OpenSecrets.org data, 208 different PACs — mostly affiliated with corporations and trade associations, but also a handful of unions — made the delicate jump from financially backing the incumbent in the run up to Election Day, to cutting a check for the victorious challenger in the days and weeks afterwards.

These 208 organizations gave 17 incumbents more than $1.8 million prior to their defeats, and in the final 57 days of 2014 had already showered their replacements with $1,040,000.

Newly anointed GOP Sens. Thom Tillis (N.C.) and Tom Cotton (Ark.) were suddenly powerful magnets for PAC money: Both collected more than $100,000 in checks from PACs that had backed the incumbents in their states by the end of November. Given that the races they won were the hardest fought — Tillis’ race was the most expensive congressional race ever — it wasn’t surprising that many PACs might be caught on the wrong side of the fight and then would quickly attempt to make peace with the giant killers.

Among victorious Senate challengers, Tillis led by a mile in picking up financial support from PACs that previously backed his opponent, Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan. By the end of December, he’d collected more than $330,000 from 103 different PACs that had shelled out $485,000 for Hagan in the 2014 cycle. That’s a significant number, though less so in context: In the 2014 cycle, Hagan’s campaign had raised more than $2.8 million from 1,539 different PACs.

Cotton also ended up doing well with PACs that had backed Democrat Mark Pryor— 63 groups that gave Pryor $393,000 quickly pivoted and turned over at least $195,000 to Cotton.

In the words of Monty Python:

MINSTREL: Brave Sir Robin ran away
ROBIN: No!
MINSTREL (singing): Bravely ran away away
ROBIN: I didn't!
MINSTREL (singing): When danger reared its ugly head, He bravely turned his tail and fled
ROBIN: No!
MINSTREL (singing): Yes Brave Sir Robin turned about
ROBIN: I didn't!
MINSTREL (singing): And gallantly he chickened out Bravely taking to his feet
ROBIN: I never did!
MINSTREL (singing): He beat a very brave retreat
ROBIN: Oh, lie!
MINSTREL (singing): Bravest of the brave Sir Robin
ROBIN: I never!

Dem Woes With Working Class Whites

Jonathan Topaz writes at Politico:

After two years of warnings about Republicans’ woeful performance among nonwhite voters in 2012, the midterms showed that Democrats have their own significant demographic vulnerability: working-class white voters. Republicans won white voters without a college degree by 30 points, 64 percent to 34 percent, according to exit polls, equal to their margin in the wave election of 2010. Polling data show that support for President Barack Obama among working-class whites has dropped 8 points since 2010.
...
“Democrats have chosen to focus on issues that the liberal base of the party really likes, but the working-class person in West Virginia or Arkansas or Louisiana or Alaska doesn’t necessarily identify with,” said political analyst Charlie Cook.

Cook pointed to those four states — where Republicans captured Democratic-held Senate seats this year — to argue that Democrats are a “marginalized party” across much of the country.

“This is more than just a bad year for Democrats,” he said. “The challenge that the Democratic Party has in parts of the country appears to be even more formidable than it was two years ago.”

Added former Rep. Dan Glickman (D-Kan.): “Democrats really gave up on small towns and exurban America.” [emphasis added]

And even though Republicans have yet to make significant inroads among minorities, the GOP could make up for those losses by further enhancing its performance among white voters.

“Given what’s happening with working-class voters and how disenchanted they are with the Democratic Party … Republicans still have a chance to win the presidency without [making] significant changes to policy,” said GOP consultant Ford O’Connell.

Democrats won’t necessarily be able to count on the same level of minority turnout in 2016 without Obama. At the same time, Mitt Romney in 2012 won a larger share of the white vote than any GOP nominee since George H.W. Bush and still lost the presidency.

The Crossroads Groups Use Obama & Obamacare in House Races

In House races, the Crossroads groups are linking Democrats to Obama and Obamacare.

In Arkansas 2, American Crossroads attacks Patrick Henry Hays:





In Nevada 4, Crossroads GPS highlights Rep. Steven Horsford's pro-Obama voting record:




In New Jersey 3, Crossroads GPS focuses on Aimee Belgard's local record, but works in a reference to her support for Obamacare.

"All Folks Who Vote With Me"

Aaron Blake reports at The Washington Post:

A couple weeks ago, President Obama declared that, while he wasn't on the Nov. 4 ballot, his policies were. And just about every GOP candidate in a red or swing state soon launched an ad using that comment to tie his or her Democratic opponent to Obama.

Well, Obama appears to have just handed Republicans some more ammunition.
In an interview with Rev. Al Sharpton on Monday, Obama defended his support for candidates in top races who haven't welcomed Obama to campaign with them.

"The bottom line is, though, these are are all folks who vote with me; they have supported my agenda in Congress," Obama said.

 

That approach is just fine with the Crossroads groups.

Crossroads GPS says that Kay Hagan sides with Obama instead of North Carolina:



Crossroads GPS uses the"my policies" quotation and says that Kay Hagan votes with the president 95 percent of the time.



In Arkansas, it says that Mark Pryor voted with him 93 percent of the time:




In Alaska, American Crossroads points out that Mark Begich voted with POTUS 97 percent of the time.




And in New Hampshire, it re-purposes an earlier attack on Pryor to say that "Shaheen" spells "Obama."

Crossroads GPS Goes After Pryor on Obamacare

Crossroads GPS v. Pryor on Social Security, Obamacare, and Immigration

Crossroads GPS goes after Mark Pryor on Social Security (again), Obamacare (again) and immigration:

 

Arkansas: Suddenly Red

Republicans are likely to win races for Senate and governor in Arkansas.  As Fred Barnes notes in The Weekly Standard, such victories would complete a rapid realignment.

No state has switched party control as suddenly and totally as Arkansas. Before the 2010 election, Democrats held both Senate seats, three of the four House seats, the governorship, and both chambers of the state legislature. Republicans feared they were doomed to permanent minority status.

After the 2010 election, they stopped worrying. Republicans won all four House seats, and Republican John Boozman crushed incumbent Democratic senator Blanche Lincoln,

58 percent to 37 percent. Two years later, they took over the state legislature for the first time in 158 years. And Mitt Romney defeated President Obama in Arkansas, 61 percent to 37 percent.

But it was Republican success in down-ballot races that was most telling. In 2010, GOP candidates for lieutenant governor, secretary of state, and land commissioner were little-known, poorly funded, and expected to lose by roughly 60-40. To everyone’s surprise, they won narrowly, with 51 or 52 percent of the vote.

This meant “the Republican base vote” had become a majority in Arkansas elections, says Dan Greenberg, the president of the Advance Arkansas Institute, a Little Rock think tank. The Republican advantage appears to have grown since 2010 to 5 or 6 percentage points.

NBC Poll: Arkansas, Kentucky, Colorado

Mark Murray reports at NBC:

In Arkansas, Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by five points among likely voters, 45 percent to 40 percent, with two minor candidates getting a combined 5 percent.

In Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is ahead of Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes by eight points among likely voters, 47 percent to 39 percent, with Libertarian David Patterson getting another 8 percent.

And in Colorado, incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., is up by six points over Rep. Cory Gardner, 48 percent to 42 percent.

 

Crossroads GPS v Pryor and Obamacare

David Drucker reports at The Washington Examiner

The death of Obamacare as a campaign issue has been greatly exaggerated.

Two months before Election Day, senior Republican strategists working on key Senate campaigns say they intend to continue using the Affordable Care Act to weigh down their Democratic opponents, despite talk that the issue is fading.

In some cases, they say simply tying the Democratic candidate to President Obama’s healthcare law could prove decisive. But even in races where it isn’t a knockout blow, GOP operatives say it is a useful symbol for disgruntled voters of their dissatisfaction with the president.

“There is absolutely no issue more salient than Obamacare in any Senate race that I know about,” a Republican strategist advising multiple candidates told the Washington Examiner. “It has become a proxy for Obama’s job approval as a whole — or maybe it’s the driver.”

Crossroads GPS is using the issue against Pryor:

 

Crossroads GPS v. Pryor on Social Security and Medicare

Philip Klein writes at The Washington Examiner:

Crossroads GPS, an arm of the Karl Rove-founded political action committee American Crossroads, has dipped its toes into the keyArkansas U.S. Senate race with an ad attacking Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., on Medicare and Social Security. And it’s right out of AARP’s playbook.

The context is that Pryor has been hammering challenger Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., for backing raising the Social Security retirement age and voting for House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s budget, which would transition Medicare into a system providing seniors a choice of competing privately-administered plans.

Back in May, Jim Antle, writing for the National Interest, urged Cotton to go on offense onentitlements by making a positive case for the need to reform programs that are currently fiscally unsustainable.

Yet Cotton’s campaign has attacked Pryor for also having supported raising the Social Security retirement age. Granted, it’s perfectly fair to point out Pryor’s hypocrisy. But the Crossroads ad goes a step further, outright attacking Pryor for supporting raising the retirement age and voting to cut Medicare through President Obama’s health care law.

Crossroads GPS v. Mark Pryor & Mark Udall

From Politico Morning Score:

Crossroads GPS, the nonprofit arm of the Crossroads organization, is out with new television ads in Arkansas and Colorado. The Arkansas spot hits Pryor on Obamacare. The Colorado ad criticizes Democratic Sen. Mark Udall for calling new EPA regulations “a good start” and asks Coloradoans to urge him to support the Keystone XL pipeline. Both ads begin today; the Arkansas ad is backed by more than $435,000, while the Colorado spot has $460,000 behind it. Arkansas: http://youtu.be/aFdKquc3Csg, Colorado: http://youtu.be/yeDx1MV6QZU

Crossroads GPS v. Begich and Pryor

In issue-advocacy ads (the tag lines tells viewers to contact the members, and do not mention the election), Crossroads GPS goes after Mark Begich (D-AK) and Mark Pryor (D-AR) over Obamacare.

American Crossroads v. Pryor

The Weekly Standard reports:

Conservative super PAC American Crossroads has a new ad running in Arkansas calling Democratic senator Mark Pryor a "rubber stamp" for Barack Obama.
...
American Crossroads founder Karl Rove says the group is spending $440,000 on the ad buy.

Pryor is up for reelection this November and faces first-term Republican congressman Tom Cotton, who is giving the incumbent Democrat a tough fight. The Real Clear Politics poll average shows Pryor and Cotton locked in a virtual dead heat, with Pryor holding a one-point advantage.

 

Crossroads in a House Primary and an Arkansas Senate Race

National Journal reports:

 American Crossroads is about to get involved in another Republican primary, this one for an upstate New York congressional district the party hopes to flip in November. And this time, the GOP super PAC is going negative against a fellow Republican, something the group hasn't done in other primaries this election year.

Crossroads will begin airing TV ads in the House district Tuesday, according to an advertising schedule filed with the CBS affiliate in Burlington, Vt. The form, accessed through the Sunlight Foundation's "Political Ad Sleuth" tracking tool, also lists the purpose of the ad: "Matt Doheny NY-21 Congressional; Why he is unfit for Congress."

Doheny is making his fourth run for the closely divided 21st District, where Democratic Rep. Bill Owens is retiring. But former George W. Bush administration official Elise Stefanik's campaign has drawn significant Republican support this year in one of her party's top pickup opportunities in the House of Representatives. 

 

Roll Call reports:

American Crossroads is going up with a new ad Wednesday tying Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., to President Barack Obama and his signature health care law — both unpopular topics in Arkansas, according to polls.

The ad, called ‘Spelling Bee,’ features a young girl on stage at a spelling bee, playing out a familiar scene to anyone who watched the Scripps Spelling Bee last week.

Good Ads

Republicans actually have some really good Senate challengers who are running really good ads.

Dr. Monica Wehby, is running for the GOP Senate nomination in Oregon:



At The Wall Street Journal, Kimberly Strassel tells why it's so effective:

Political commentators are praising the ad for its positive message, though the spot contains a more subtle power. Ms. Wehby's main opponent in the primary is Jason Conger, a GOP state legislator. She's highlighting her fiscal conservatism and her opposition to ObamaCare, though Mr. Conger is attacking her for her more libertarian social views. The unsaid message of the Wehby ad is that while she may be pro-choice, she clearly cares deeply about life and put her skills to work to help a mother avoid a termination.

In Arkansas, Tom Cotton has a clever response to an attack by incumbent David Pryor:




Remember, this race is in the Deep South.  In the 1960s, could one have imagined an ad in which an African American authority figure scolds a white candidate?

Tom Cotton

At The Daily Beast, Michelle Cottle writes of Tom Cotton, a GOP candidate for the seat of Senator Mark Pryor (D-AR):

Even setting aside Pryor’s handicap as the lone remaining Dem in the congressional delegation of a state that’s fast trending red and that really really doesn’t like President Obama, Cotton is a genuinely impressive political specimen. The lanky, whip-smart 37-year-old has a CV that is, as GOP strategist Ralph Reed puts it, “out of central casting”: two degrees from Harvard (undergrad and law), a stint at the Claremont Graduate University (including a Publius fellowship in conservative political thought at the Claremont Institute), a federal clerkship, a turn at the crème de la crème consultancy McKinsey & Co., plus—and here’s where it gets almost too good to be true—an Army stint that featured tours of duty in both Iraq and Afghanistan. He left the service with the rank of captain and, among other decorations, a Bronze Star. “He’s a star,” asserts Reed