It's His Party. It's Not His Senate

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Trump endorsed Ken Paxton for the Senate in Texas and secured the defeat of Rep. Thomas Massie in a KY primary.  Adam Wren and Samuel Benson at POLITICO:

“Those so-called victories over the last couple weeks are just a mirage. They are self-owns,” said one senior Senate Republican operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly about frustration with the White House. “We’re not actually beating Democrats, and we’re not actually advancing legislation. Instead, gas is up 45% due to our actions and the President’s decision to go to war with Iran. He’s focused on the ballroom. He’s announced a $1.8 billion restitution fund with zero details or congressional authority to do so. It just is crazy.”

In just one day, a conquered — and, consequently, unbridled — Sen. Bill Cassidy joined Democrats to become the 50th yes vote on a war powers resolution, opposed Trump’s ballroom funding in reconciliation and called Trump’s freshly picked Paxton a “felon.” And that was just day three of Cassidy unchained.

Cassidy is not alone. Trump’s ballroom funding is stalled, the SAVE America Act is mired in the Senate and Majority Leader John Thune is pushing back on his desire to fire the parliamentarian. That’s not to mention the pushback even from the likes of the friendlier senator from Louisiana, John Kennedy, who expressed doubt about the Justice Department’s $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund.

“There are still many, many months to go before the election, and this president is going to have to continue to deal and work with, and partner with, or battle with this group of lawmakers,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska told reporters Tuesday. “Even though Bill Cassidy lost his primary, he is still a voting member of the Senate until January. … So the president may have just opened some opportunities for people.”

Now Cornyn could join their ranks. After Trump endorsed Paxton, the senior Texas senator faces increasingly slim chances of surviving next week’s runoff election. Should he lose, Cornyn will be liberated to vote his conscience — unmoved by threats of further political vengeance from Trump — for the final months of his term.

Paxon could still win, but only if Republicans divert millions of dollars from North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, and other competitive races.

Beshear

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The 2028 campaign is just starting.

Hannah Knowles at WP:

PAWLEYS ISLAND, S.C.Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear had plenty to say about the culture wars that have divided his party as he laid groundwork here this week for a possible 2028 presidential run.

As some prominent Democrats warn that the party has gone too far left on trans rights, the governor from the deep-red South quoted scripture to explain why he vetoed “every single piece of anti-LGBTQ+ legislation” that GOP state lawmakers sent to his desk. As some institutions back off racial justice initiatives that have faced a fierce backlash and that Republicans call “woke,” Beshear said he was proud to make Juneteenth an executive branch holiday and remove a statue of Confederate president Jefferson Davis from the Kentucky Capitol.

“I’m a proud pro-choice governor, I’m a proud pro-LGBTQ+ governor, and I’m a proud pro-diversity governor,” Beshear said at his final stop, a dinner for Democrats in conservative Georgetown County. “Now some people would tell you that a Democrat can’t win in a state like mine or yours with that resume. Yet here I am.”

Beshear occupies a singular position in the early 2028 Democratic sweepstakes as a two-term governor in a state President Donald Trump won by 30 points who is pitching himself as a blueprint for the party to start winning again. As Democrats fight over whether they paid a price for moving too far left on some social issues, Beshear is using his red-state experience to argue the party need not run away from those topics.

School Choice Loses

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

Eli Hager and Jeremy Schwartz at Pro Publica:

Coming into this week’s election, Donald Trump and Republicans had hoped to reverse that sort of popular opposition to “school choice” with new voucher ballot measures in several states.

But despite Trump’s big win in the presidential race, vouchers were again soundly rejected by significant majorities of Americans. In Kentucky, a ballot initiative that would have allowed public money to go toward private schooling was defeated roughly 65% to 35% — the same margin as in Arizona in 2018 and the inverse of the margin by which Trump won Kentucky. In Nebraska, nearly all 93 counties voted to repeal an existing voucher program; even its reddest county, where 95% of voters supported Trump, said no to vouchers. And in Colorado, voters defeated an effort to add a “right to school choice” to the state constitution, language that might have allowed parents to send their kids to private schools on the public dime.

Expansions of school vouchers, despite backing from wealthy conservatives, have never won when put to voters. Instead, they lose by margins not often seen in such a polarized country.

A Very Good Night for Democrats

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. 

The past year has been very good for Democrats.

Steven Shepard, Jessica Piper, and Zach Montellaro at Politico:

Going into Tuesday night, Democrats were already having a strong 2023. Compared to Biden’s 2020 victory, Democratic candidates in special elections this year had been running about 8 percentage points better, on average.

There were a couple marquee victories, too, like flipping control of Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court and stopping conservatives from trying to make it more difficult to pass the abortion-rights amendment in Ohio.

Tuesday added to the winning streak: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection. Democrats held the Virginia state Senate and flipped the state House. The party was the driving force behind a ballot measure to enshrine the right to an abortion in the Ohio state constitution. And Democrats added to their Wisconsin victory by winning a similar race in Pennsylvania.

They also won by muscle-flexing margins. Beshear beat state Attorney General Daniel Cameron by 5 percentage points; his first victory four years ago was by less than half a point. The Ohio abortion amendment passed by 12 points. Daniel McCaffery, the Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania, won by 8.

Republicans can point to a few victories this year. They easily flipped the open governorship in Louisiana last month, and Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves won reelection on Tuesday. But their successes were few and far between a year after also underachieving in the 2022 midterms.

Off-off Year Elections in 2023

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

Aaron Blake at WP:

Four states held special elections or primaries on Tuesday, and all four were encouraging for Democrats:

• A much-watched primary for a crucial Wisconsin Supreme Court seat was technically nonpartisan, but featured two candidates clearly more aligned with the left and two competing to be the conservative candidate. The left-leaning candidates combined for 54 percent, while the right-leaning ones combined for 46 percent; the field is now narrowed to two candidates, one left-leaning and one right-leaning. (This is in a state that has been decided by less than a percentage point in the last two presidential elections, and where the first round in a 2020 state Supreme Court race was very close.) Also, the de facto Democratic nominee, Milwaukee County Judge Janet Protasiewicz, is currently taking slightly more of the vote than the two GOP-aligned candidates together.
• In the special election for Virginia’s 4th Congressional District, Democrat Jennifer McClellan is currently winning by 49 points in a district President Biden won by 36 points in 2020. Compare that margin to those of the late Democratic incumbent Rep. Donald McEachin in 2022 (30 points) and the party’s 2021 gubernatorial nominee (who carried the district by 13 points).
• In a Kentucky race, Democratic state Senate candidate Cassie Chambers Armstrong won by 54 points in a district Biden carried by 30, according to the Louisville Courier-Journal.
• And in New Hampshire, Democrats held on to a key state House seat in the closely divided chamber, winning by 11 points in a race that was literally tied on Election Day 2022. (The state reran the election after each candidate emerged with the same number of votes.)

The results come on top of a trio of Pennsylvania state House special elections earlier this month in which Democrats significantly over-performed in the 2020 presidential election results. That Democrats won the seats wasn’t surprising — the closest district favored Biden by 16 points in 2020 — but Democrats exceeded those 2020 margins by 14, 24, and 33 points with control of the chamber at stake.

Updated: U.S. House Special Elections, 1957-Presenthttps://t.co/q5mmq1eQyO

— Greg Giroux (@greggiroux) January 12, 2022

Gubernatorial Races in 2023

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

Karlyn Bowman, Ruy Teixeira, and Nate Moore at AEI:

In Mississippi, Republican Tate Reeves is a strong favorite to win reelection and preserve the GOP trifecta, despite a recent Siena College poll showing a majority of voters would prefer a new governor. Democrats are optimistic that Brandon Presley, a public service commissioner and distant relative of Elvis, can keep the race close. Presley’s past electoral performance in his rural northern district is impressive, but Mississippi’s ruby-red hue will be near impossible to overcome.

Louisiana’s open race represents the most promising gubernatorial opportunity for the GOP. Two-term Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards is term limited and a number of Republicans have jumped into the. Though the state party endorsed—controversially—Attorney General Jeff Landry in November, State Treasurer John Schroder has also announced his candidacy, and several other well-known Republicans are considering campaigns as well. Regardless of the eventual Republican candidate, the GOP should be a strong favorite in a state that has continued to slip out of reach for Democrats.

Though Donald Trump won Kentucky by 26 points in 2020, the Bluegrass State is home to 2023’s most intriguing gubernatorial contest. Four years ago, Democrat Andy Beshear pulled off a surprise victory over Republican Matt Bevin. Despite a quietly successful first term, reelection will prove difficult in solidly red state.

Climate Politics

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race. The update -- recently published -- looks at political and demographic trends through the 2018 midterm.

Climate change is an extremely important issue, but it has been a peripheral concern in presidential campaigns.  For most Americans, the impact has seemed abstract and speculative.  But the Western wildfires may be making it more visible and urgent.  The effects are not limited to coastal areas.  As of this week, the smoke had drifted as far east as Illinois.

Seung Min Kim and Brady Dennis at WP:

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden excoriated President Trump on Monday over his environmental record as wildfires continued to burn through much of the West and as the president used a trip to California to question the scientific consensus that climate change is a leading cause of the devastating blazes.

Biden said during a speech in Wilmington, Del., that the “undeniable, accelerating, punishing reality” of global warming was playing out in the wildfires and hurricanes that have marked the end of summer, arguing it is a problem that “requires action, not denial.”

Across the country in California, Trump sought to pin the blame for the fires on another culprit — forest management — while shrugging off warnings that human-caused climate warming will continue to make Western states a tinderbox with annual fires that destroy communities.

“It will start getting cooler. You just watch,” he said during a briefing with state and local leaders in McClellan Park, Calif.

California Natural Resources Secretary @WadeCrowfoot: "We've had temperatures explode this summer..."

President Trump: "It'll start getting cooler, you just watch."

Crowfoot: "I wish science agreed with you."

Trump: "I don't think science knows, actually." pic.twitter.com/xJPYoTjJBo

— CSPAN (@cspan) September 14, 2020

The issue is showing up in Senate races:

• Montana
• North Carolina
• Kentucky

Good Primary Day for Democrats

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race.

At NYT, Jonathan Martin and Adam Nagoourney report that moderates prevailed in Colorado and Kentucky, and that Oklahoma voters endorsed Medicaid expansion.

Amy McGrath, a former Marine fighter pilot who built a formidable campaign war chest, emerged Tuesday as the Democratic nominee to take on Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, fending off a challenge from the left that highlighted the party’s ideological divisions.

In Colorado, John Hickenlooper, the state’s former governor, survived a rough campaign to win his Democratic Senate primary, propelling him to a general election challenge to Senator Cory Gardner, a Republican and top target for Democrats looking to capture control of the Senate.

And in Oklahoma, voters narrowly approved expanding Medicaid coverage to at least 200,000 lower-income adults, according to The Associated Press, an affirmation of Obamacare in an overwhelmingly Republican state. The results, coming as the state battles the coronavirus pandemic, was a repudiation of President Trump and Republican state leaders who had opposed the Medicaid expansion and who supported a court case seeking to overturn President Barack Obama’s signature health care plan.

In Colorado, Republicans nominated another loony who hurts the party brand and could lose an otherwise safe seat.  Carl Hulse at NYT:

Lauren Boebert, a political novice and gun-rights activist who has spoken approvingly of the pro-Trump conspiracy theory QAnon, claimed an upset primary victory on Tuesday night against Representative Scott Tipton of Colorado, unseating a five-term incumbent endorsed by President Trump.

Ms. Boebert, 33, is the owner of Shooters Grill in Rifle, Colo., and has gained attention in recent days for defying pandemic restrictions by keeping her restaurant open. She previously grabbed headlines for confronting a former Democratic presidential candidate, Beto O’Rourke, over his pledge during an appearance in the state to seize assault rifles.

“I am here to say: Hell, no, you’re not,” Ms. Boebert, who encourages employees in her restaurant to openly carry guns, told him during a town-hall meeting in Aurora. Gun rights have been at the center of the state’s political clashes for years after new restrictions imposed after mass shootings.

More recently, Ms. Boebert defied state orders against opening her restaurant until the Garfield County sheriff obtained a cease-and-desist order against her.

Congratulations on a really great win! https://t.co/rMpFiV6LvY

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 1, 2020

Campaigns and Coronavirus

In Defying the Odds, we discuss the 2016 campaign. The 2019 update includes a chapter on the 2018 midterms. The 2020 race, the subject of our next book, is well under  way.  

Coronavirus presents unprecedented challenges to public policy and the electoral process.

James Dawson at NPR:

The coronavirus pandemic has disrupted elections and political campaigns all over the country. But elections can be rescheduled and conducted by mail. Campaigns have tried going virtual.

Ballot measures almost completely rely on canvassers to gather thousands of signatures in person in order for an initiative to make it on the ballot. And the current public health concerns about social interaction have forced ballot measure organizers to shut down their efforts as large events and door-to-door canvassing become impossible.

Alex Rogers at CNN:

Down-ballot candidates have also not shied away from using coronavirus — and the government response to it -- in their advertising.

After the Senate passed a bill to extend paid sick leave for workers, Democrat Amy McGrath, a retired Marine fighter pilot running against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, criticized his handling of the bill in a statement, saying the Kentucky Republican "put his personal political agenda over our well-being."

McConnell's campaign in turn leaned into his powerful role in the Senate, responding with its first television ad of the year. After sweeping aerial shots of Washington, DC, and scenes of the majority leader in the halls of the Capitol, the narrator accuses McGrath of "us(ing) this crisis."

"While Amy McGrath lies, Mitch McConnell leads," the narrator says, before the web address for the government's coronavirus response website flashes on screen.
But while a national crisis can confer legitimacy on incumbents, especially a Senate leader at the center of negotiating the largest economic stimulus in US history, it may also provide an opportunity for challengers to try to resonate with average Americans by identifying with them.

Last week, McGrath released a new ad showing her and her family "cooped up" at home. As her kids and husband play on the floor behind her, McGrath talks directly to the camera about the volunteer network her campaign has organized to assist "families and seniors throughout Kentucky."

Challengers, and the outside groups backing them, can also use ads during a national crisis to criticize those in power. 

Michael Kruse and Elena Schneider at Politico:

Spread out and all but stranded across the country, sheltering in parents’ guest rooms or spartan apartments with leases about to end, near sad, cleaned-out headquarters, more than two dozen jobless strategists, operatives and organizers described in interviews post-campaign exhaustion coupled now with the extreme anxiety of this lurking illness. They worry. About where the next job is coming from at a moment in which most campaigns—from presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden all the way down the ballot—are all but dormant. They worry about what politics in a dramatically altered country even will look like in a month. Three months. On November 3. Beyond. They worry about health insurance and rent payments. They worry that all this has the potential not just to stall but to smother the nascent careers of promising political pros.

“Everything is on ice,” said Michael McLaughlin, Klobuchar’s national field director. “A lot of younger folks are really stressed.” Added Klobuchar political director Lucinda Ware: “They’re trying to grieve and mourn, readjust. They thought they’d move into other jobs and opportunities, and overnight, or within seven days, they have left the race, started interviewing, looking for places of their own—and that’s all gone now.”

Off-Year Blues

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race. The update -- recently published -- looks at political and demographic trends through the 2018 midterm.

Catherine Lucey at WSJ:

President Trump tried an 11th-hour rally, a battery of tweets and a personal plea for help. But, as he acknowledged in a tweet late Tuesday, his efforts didn’t appear to be enough to get a Republican running for governor in Kentucky over the finish line late Tuesday, suggesting some limitations to his political pull at a key moment for his presidency.

Just three years after Mr. Trump won the state with wide margins, Democrat Andy Beshear declared victory over incumbent Republican Gov. Matt Bevin Tuesday night, though Mr. Bevin didn’t immediately concede and the Associated Press has yet to call a winner. Republicans prevailed in other statewide races in Kentucky and won the governor’s race in Mississippi, another red state where Mr. Trump campaigned, but suffered losses in Virginia, where Democrats seized control of the statehouse.

Patrick Wilson at The Richmond Times-Dispatach:

Fueled by President Donald Trump’s unpopularity, Virginia voters on Tuesday handed control of the state’s General Assembly to Democrats, setting up the most progressive legislature in modern times.

Democrats have not held both the state House and Senate and the governor’s mansion in 26 years, and Tuesday’s results give them power to pass an agenda and allow Gov. Ralph Northam to sign his party’s bills into law.

Democrats celebrated across the state Tuesday night. Their momentum began two years ago when Democrats flipped 15 seats in the House of Delegates. They outraised Republicans this year to finish the job, doing well in Northern Virginia and the Richmond suburbs. Results were mixed in Virginia Beach, where Republicans held some key seats.

At Roll Call, Nathan Gonzales says that Trump probably helped Bevin more than he hurt him, but...

Suburbs continue to be a problem for Republicans. Tuesday’s results continued to demonstrate GOP problems in the suburbs since Trump took office. The latest was in northern Kentucky in the Cincinnati suburbs, where Bevin won in 2015 and Beshear won in 2019. Or in northern Mississippi, in the Memphis suburbs where the GOP margin in DeSoto County dropped from 61 points to 20 points, according to Ryan Matsumoto, a contributing analyst to Inside Elections. These are just the latest pieces of evidence after Democrat Dan McCready’s overperformance in the Charlotte suburbs from 2018 to the 2019 special election in North Carolina’s 9th District. It should be particularly concerning for President Trump in his efforts to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas in 2020.

Exploiting GOP Gains in the States

At The New York Times, Alexander Burns and Mitch Smith report that Republicans are moving fast to exploit their gains in state government.

Acting fastest at the moment, though, are four states where Republicans won total control of the government only in November. In addition to Kentucky, Missouri and New Hampshire became one-party states with the election of Republican governors, and Republicans in Iowa snatched away the State Senate, where Democrats had held their last grip on power.

In all four states, Republicans are racing to strip back the influence of labor unions, a key Democratic constituency.

In Missouri, where union membership has waned, Gov. Eric Greitens, a telegenic former member of the Navy SEALs, signed a “right to work” bill into law on Monday, denying unions the power to require that workers at companies they represent pay dues or their equivalent as a condition of employment. In Kentucky, Gov. Matt Bevin signed a similar measure in January, along with the repeal of a law that kept wages high on public construction projects. And in New Hampshire, State Senator Jeb Bradley, the Republican majority leader, said so-called right-to-work legislation was a top priority.

In Iowa, Republican leaders announced this past week that they would pursue sweeping changes to the collective bargaining rights of public employees. State Senator Bill Dix, the new Republican majority leader, said his party had campaigned on such changes — which would cut deeply into unions’ negotiating power — and intended to make good on its commitments. He said Republicans would also seek to change state laws governing health care and to enshrine in the State Constitution the right to bear arms.

Crossroads GPS v. Grimes on Coal

Crossroads GPS links Alison Ludergan Grimes to a 2008 Obama comment on coal.  (See Glenn Kessler's analysis of the quotation.)

 

Puzzle Ads

In Kansas, American Crossroads is running an ad depicting independent Senate candidate Greg Orman as an Obama-supporting puzzle. Crossroads GPS is running a similar ad against Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky.

 

Crossroads GPS Against Hagan and Grimes

As American Crossroads did with Braley, Crossroads GPS is using absenteeism against Hagan:




And again, it links Grimes to Obama:

Grimes: Oops

Philip Bump reports at The Washington Post:

Alison Lundergan Grimes (D), who is trying to unseat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) this fall, appeared before the Louisville Courier-Journal editorial board on Thursday to make her pitch for their endorsement. The life-long Democrat, whose father represented Kentucky for the party in the state House and who herself has been on the ballot in the state on the Democratic ticket, was asked a simple question. Did she vote for President Obama in 2008 and 2012?

And she didn't answer. Repeatedly.

In an interesting nod to the times, the interview was streamed live, meaning that it took no time at all for Republicans to clip the non-answer and put it online.
,,,
But there was no reason to do this. Grimes is fairly new on the national scene, but she's not new enough not to know how to answer this fairly simply. "Yes, I voted for him," you say, "but I've been disappointed by a lot of the things he's done, particularly on COAL and JOBS and GUNS" or whatever. It's simple. And then you can say, "but I backed Hillary in the primary" and so on and so on. 2008 was a landmark year, a wave for Democrats, when Obama's approval was sky-high. Of course she voted for him! Dodging the question looks like she's trying to hide her position, which is never the face you want to show -- particularly when conservatives are accusing her of hiding her positions on other things. 

Crossroads GPS, Grimes, and Coal

Crossroads GPS links Alison Grimes to Harry Reid and the war on coal:

NBC Poll: Arkansas, Kentucky, Colorado

Mark Murray reports at NBC:

In Arkansas, Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by five points among likely voters, 45 percent to 40 percent, with two minor candidates getting a combined 5 percent.

In Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is ahead of Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes by eight points among likely voters, 47 percent to 39 percent, with Libertarian David Patterson getting another 8 percent.

And in Colorado, incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., is up by six points over Rep. Cory Gardner, 48 percent to 42 percent.

 

American Crossroads in Kentucky and Alaska

In Kentucky, American Crossroads links Alison Lundergan Grimes to Elizabeth Warren and Barack Obama.

In Alaska, it links Mark Begich to Obama, and uses Don Young to accuse him of false credit-claiming.


 

History Favors McConnell

Nate Cohn writes at The New York Times:

Mr. McConnell is not only an incumbent senator who represents the party opposed to the White House in a midterm election, but he also comes from a state that opposes the president. Since 1956, only seven senators in these circumstances have lost re-election. The last time was in 1998, when John Edwards defeated Senator Lauch Faircloth in North Carolina.

But 2014 is not 1998. Back then, President Bill Clinton’s approval rating was in the mid-60s. Today, President Obama’s ratings are mired in the low 40s. Kentucky is also not North Carolina, which only narrowly voted against Mr. Clinton. Kentucky is an extremely favorable state for a Republican candidate: It voted for Romney and McCain by an average of 25 points to the right of the country.

From that perspective, there is no precedent for a McConnell defeat. No senator has lost in a state as favorable as Kentucky when the president represents the other party. And it’s not even close: North Carolina, it turns out, is the closest example. States with serious reservations about the incumbent president seem unwilling to dismiss the president’s opponents in the Senate.

Don't Mess with Mitch

Politico reports:

For Matt Bevin, the rookie Senate candidate taking on one of the most powerful Republicans in the country — and possibly the most ruthless — every day on the stump brings a new hazing.

There was the time before he even jumped into the race against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell when Bevin was warned he’d be shunned by fellow churchgoers once McConnell was finished making mincemeat of his reputation. Campaign trackers follow Bevin constantly, recording his every public utterance to turn the slightest slip into an attack ad or Web video.

Vendors and consultants one day say they’re ready to come on board only to ominously reverse course the next, after mulling the repercussions of crossing McConnell.

“I’ve had people who’ve said, ‘You can use our donor list’ or ‘I’ll come on with the campaign,’” Bevin said during a recent daylong campaign excursion around Louisville. “Then all of a sudden they change their minds.”

Some have told him they were warned “it will be the last job you ever have in this business” if they joined his campaign, he said.

“It is thuggery,” Bevin added. “It’s literally like something out of Tammany Hall. It’s dusting off Boss Tweed. I say bring it on.”