Trump and Alaska

 Our recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie.  And we now know how close he came to subverting the Constitution.    

Oh my. I particularly like the reference to “Murkowsky.” https://t.co/X2i1hnQwYy

— Stuart Rothenberg (@StuPolitics) October 25, 2022

Alaska GOP Censures McConnell For Backing Murkowski https://t.co/FdE17IfKkh via @TPM

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) October 25, 2022

Democrats Defibrillated

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. 

John McCormick at WSJ:

Democrats are entering the homestretch before November’s election in better shape than earlier this year, boosted by gains among independent voters, improved views of President Biden and higher voting enthusiasm among abortion-rights supporters, a Wall Street Journal poll shows.

Republicans have electoral fuel to tap into if they can keep the debate focused on the economy and what has been the highest inflation in four decades. Nearly two-thirds of registered voters say the economy isn’t good or poor—a larger share than in the last Journal survey, in March—and close to two-thirds say the pain of higher costs makes them more likely to cast a ballot.

Democrats hold a slight edge over Republicans, 47% to 44%, when voters are asked which party they would support in their congressional district if the election were held today, a lead that is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. Republicans had a five-point advantage in March.

The Democratic gains come from increased support among independents, women and younger voters. Black and Hispanic voters, who have traditionally favored Democrats heavily, are also more solidly supportive of the party than they were earlier this year.

Among political independents, typically the key to victory in close elections, more voters now favor a Democratic candidate for Congress than a Republican, 38% to 35%. In March, Republicans led among independents by 12 percentage points.

Before the Supreme Court’s late-June reversal of the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade abortion ruling, the GOP had been more optimistic about its prospects, in part because the party that doesn’t control the White House typically makes midterm-election gains.

“Republicans were cruising, and Democrats were having a hard time,” said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who conducted the survey along with Democrat John Anzalone. “It’s almost like the abortion issue came along and was kind of like a defibrillator to Democrats.“

Final margin: Peltola (D) defeats Palin (R) 51.5%-48.5% in the final round of ranked-choice. This is a huge victory and pickup for Dems, driven more by Palin's unpopularity than national trends. #AKAL

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 1, 2022

 

Ranked-Choice Voting in Alaska

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. 

 Mark Z. Barabak at LAT:

Isolation aside, Alaska has changed its elections in way that may be a model for the rest of the country as the U.S. sinks ever lower into a slough of political nihilism and dysfunction.

Starting this year, candidates will run in a one-of-a-kind system that starts by placing all of them on the same ballot, regardless of party. Then the top four vote-getters advance to the general election, at which voters will rank them in order of preference.

The idea is to reward candidates who show broad appeal and to undermine the hard-liners on both sides, resulting — in theory — in lawmakers more willing to get stuff done and leave the noxious political antics to the noisemakers on cable news and talk radio and the rabble on social media.

...

Others are eyeing the system. There are nearly 20 states, including Oregon and Nevada, where legislation has been introduced or advocates are pushing ballot measures to institute ranked-choice voting, according to FairVote, a nonpartisan organization that promotes the change.

The limited practice has already produced positive results.

New York City, which used ranked-choice voting for the first time in last year’s mayoral race, saw turnout rise by 13%.

A study of four Bay Area cities that have adopted the system since 2000 — San Francisco, Oakland, Berkeley and San Leandro — found an increase in the percentage of candidates of color seeking office, as well as an increased probability of female candidates and female candidates of color being elected.

SCOTUS, ACA, and the Senate

 In Defying the Odds, we discuss congressional elections as well as the presidential race. In 2020, Senate Democrats are trying to leverage the Supreme Court fight and Obamacare.

Let's be clear: A vote by any Senator for Judge Barrett is a vote to take away health care and eliminate pre-existing condition protections for millions of Americans.

Democrats are fighting for Americans’ health care. pic.twitter.com/VDcJD2m4zW

— Senate Democrats (@SenateDems) October 1, 2020

Shane Goldmacher and Jeremy W. Peters at NYT:

For much of 2020, Al Gross’s Senate campaign in Alaska has proceeded as something of an afterthought for most Democrats, a distant contest that was off the radar in terms of determining control of the U.S. Senate. After all, Mr. Gross is not even technically running as a Democrat, an affiliation that might doom him in a conservative state.

But in the hours after Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death on Friday, Dr. Gross’s campaign as an independent saw an infusion of attention and cash that could reshape the race: Nearly $3 million has poured into his coffers — about as much total money as the campaign had in the bank at the end of July.

“Within 15 minutes of the sad news, you saw truly organic movement,” said David Keith, who is managing Dr. Gross’s bid to oust Senator Dan Sullivan, a Republican.

From Alaska to Maine to North and South Carolina, Democratic strategists working on Senate campaigns described a spontaneous outpouring of donations the likes of which they had never seen, allowing Democrats the financial freedom to broaden the map of pickup opportunities, or press their financial advantage in top battlegrounds already saturated with advertising.

Justine Coleman at The Hill:

Democrats have raised more than $300 million in small-dollar donations for candidates and progressive causes since Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death, an ActBlue spokesperson told The Hill on Monday.

ActBlue had already announced that Democratic candidates had received more than $91 million in 28 hours after the Supreme Court announced Ginsburg’s death on Sept. 18.

Swing Left, a Democratic group that aims to flip the Senate to Democratic control, told The Hill that it has raised more than $2.6 million for Senate candidates and more than $1.7 million for state legislative races since Ginsburg's passing.

Sanders Wins 3 States, But...

Philip Bump reports at The Washington Post:

Sen. Bernie Sanders had the best night of his presidential campaign on Saturday, dominating Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the Washington, Hawaii and Alaska state caucuses by wide margins. He cut into Clinton's pledged-delegate lead by at least one-sixth and potentially more. It was the sort of night that he needs more of.
But which he's almost certainly not going to get.

The reason it was such a big night for Sanders was that he dominated in Washington state, beating Clinton by more than 40 points. Washington has a big delegate total, so splitting up the delegates gave Sanders a big margin. His giant wins in Alaska and Hawaii were icing on that cake.

But Alaska and Washington had two characteristics that made them very friendly terrain for Sanders: They were caucuses in predominantly non-black states. And there aren't many more of those on the calendar.

At FiveThirtyEight, Harry Enten picks up the story:

So why is Sanders doing better in caucuses than primaries? The most obvious answer is that caucuses reward candidates with diehard supporters. There are often speeches, and sometimes multiple rounds of voting at caucuses. Typically, you have to stick around for a while to vote. That takes devotion, and if you’ve ever met a Sanders fan, you’ll know that many would climb over hot coals to vote for him.

Sanders’s strength in caucuses may also be, in part, coincidental. Every state that has held or will hold a Democratic caucus this year has a black population at or below 10 percent of the state’s total population, and black voters have been among Clinton’s strongest demographic groups. Without those black voters, Clinton just can’t match the enthusiasm of Sanders’s backers. (In Southern states, where Clinton romped, her voters were far more enthusiastic than Sanders’s supporters were.)

Dem Woes With Working Class Whites

Jonathan Topaz writes at Politico:

After two years of warnings about Republicans’ woeful performance among nonwhite voters in 2012, the midterms showed that Democrats have their own significant demographic vulnerability: working-class white voters. Republicans won white voters without a college degree by 30 points, 64 percent to 34 percent, according to exit polls, equal to their margin in the wave election of 2010. Polling data show that support for President Barack Obama among working-class whites has dropped 8 points since 2010.
...
“Democrats have chosen to focus on issues that the liberal base of the party really likes, but the working-class person in West Virginia or Arkansas or Louisiana or Alaska doesn’t necessarily identify with,” said political analyst Charlie Cook.

Cook pointed to those four states — where Republicans captured Democratic-held Senate seats this year — to argue that Democrats are a “marginalized party” across much of the country.

“This is more than just a bad year for Democrats,” he said. “The challenge that the Democratic Party has in parts of the country appears to be even more formidable than it was two years ago.”

Added former Rep. Dan Glickman (D-Kan.): “Democrats really gave up on small towns and exurban America.” [emphasis added]

And even though Republicans have yet to make significant inroads among minorities, the GOP could make up for those losses by further enhancing its performance among white voters.

“Given what’s happening with working-class voters and how disenchanted they are with the Democratic Party … Republicans still have a chance to win the presidency without [making] significant changes to policy,” said GOP consultant Ford O’Connell.

Democrats won’t necessarily be able to count on the same level of minority turnout in 2016 without Obama. At the same time, Mitt Romney in 2012 won a larger share of the white vote than any GOP nominee since George H.W. Bush and still lost the presidency.

The Night of Crossroads

Two years ago, some on the left and the right criticized Karl Rove for the defeat of Crossroads-backed candidates.  The midterm is different as Michael Beckel, Carrie Levine, and Dave Levinthal write at Slate:

Groups connected to Rove and the Koch brothers were among the biggest winners in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Of the 10 U.S. Senate races where either the Rove-linked nonprofit Crossroads GPS or its sister super PAC, American Crossroads, was active, their favored candidates prevailed in at least six—with the Alaska Senate race still too close to call at this writing and a runoff election coming next month in Louisiana. Similarly, of the nine U.S. Senate races where the Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity was active, its favored candidates also prevailed in at least five contests. Only in New Hampshire and Michigan did the Crossroads groups and Americans for Prosperity see defeat.

In the Granite State, incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen kept Republican challenger Scott Brown, who previously represented Massachusetts in the U.S. Senate, at bay. And in Michigan, Rep. Gary Peters defeated former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land to win an open-seat race. As of press time, incumbent Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, was trailing GOP challenger Dan Sullivan, the state’s former attorney general and natural resources commissioner, by about four percentage points.

Ultimately, the current occupant of the White House decided the 2014 election, said Steven Law, president of American Crossroads. “This election was about President Obama,” Law said in a statement. Levi Russell, a spokesman for Americans for Prosperity, did not respond to requests for comment.

The Sunlight Foundation reports:

Two years ago, when we took the post-mortem of the presidential-year elections, powerhouse conservative spenders like Crossroads GPS, American Crossroads and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce had almost nothing to show for the tens of millions of dollars they funneled into that campaign. In 2014, conservatives turned the ship around, drubbing their liberal rivals in a year in which independent groups on both sides dropped unprecedented amounts of money.

The three conservative organizations mentioned above all had success rates under 20 percent two years ago. This year? Each group batted .800 or above. With several races remaining to be decided, the National Republican Senatorial Committee also boasts a 94 percent success rate.

Nicholas Confessore reports at The New York Times:

American Crossroads and its affiliated nonprofit group spent $50 million on political advertising, and at least $20 million more on so-called issue ads, a spokesman said. The groups dominated outside spending in Alaska, where the Crossroads groups put about $7 million into television advertising, and Colorado, fielding close to $14 million, which helped crush Senator Mark Udall, the Democrat who was once favored to win.

All told, Republican outside groups spent about $205 million on television advertising in Senate races, according to a Democrat tracking media purchases, who agreed to share the information on condition of anonymity, while Democratic groups spent $132 million.

For many conservative strategists, this election was a dress rehearsal for the next one. Beginning next year, they face the prospect of a formidable presidential contender in Hillary Rodham Clinton and a Democratic Party that is itself quickly mastering the mechanics of unlimited fund-raising.

“The key to success in most endeavors, including politics, is learning and adaptation,” said Stuart Stevens, who served as a top strategist to Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign. After Tuesday, Mr. Stevens said, “Republicans have that experience — and it’s an advantage.”

"All Folks Who Vote With Me"

Aaron Blake reports at The Washington Post:

A couple weeks ago, President Obama declared that, while he wasn't on the Nov. 4 ballot, his policies were. And just about every GOP candidate in a red or swing state soon launched an ad using that comment to tie his or her Democratic opponent to Obama.

Well, Obama appears to have just handed Republicans some more ammunition.
In an interview with Rev. Al Sharpton on Monday, Obama defended his support for candidates in top races who haven't welcomed Obama to campaign with them.

"The bottom line is, though, these are are all folks who vote with me; they have supported my agenda in Congress," Obama said.

 

That approach is just fine with the Crossroads groups.

Crossroads GPS says that Kay Hagan sides with Obama instead of North Carolina:



Crossroads GPS uses the"my policies" quotation and says that Kay Hagan votes with the president 95 percent of the time.



In Arkansas, it says that Mark Pryor voted with him 93 percent of the time:




In Alaska, American Crossroads points out that Mark Begich voted with POTUS 97 percent of the time.




And in New Hampshire, it re-purposes an earlier attack on Pryor to say that "Shaheen" spells "Obama."

American Crossroads v. Begich

American Crossroads goes after Mark Begich's record in Anchorage:

Crossroads GPS v. Begich and His Record

Crossroads GPS v. Begich

Crossroads GPS is going hard after Mark Begich on his record in Anchorage, along with his ties to Obama.

Crossroads GPS v. Begich on Gender Equity

"Never go after someone's strength; go after what he thinks is a strength, but what is, in reality, a weakness." -- Karl Rove, Courage and Consequence (New York:Threshold, 2010), p. 78.

 

The Wall Street Journal reports:

The case against Sen. Mark Begich isn’t about Obamacare, spending or federal debt.
Instead the first round of general election advertising in Alaska hits the first-term Democrat where he’s strongest: women’s issues and work ethic.

Americans for Prosperity on Thursday began a $1 million television advertising campaign charging Mr. Begich skips Senate votes. Featuring Steve Perrins, a local hunting lodge owner who has a reality TV show, the ad hammers Mr. Begich for missing too many Senate votes – more than 80% of other Senators.

“Why can’t Mark Begich show up to vote when it’s time to vote,” Mr. Perrins asks.
Earlier Thursday, American Crossroads launched an ad attacking Mr. Begich on women’s issues – the core of the argument he’s made for months against Republican nominee Dan Sullivan, who won Tuesday’s Senate primary. The Crossroads ad attacks Mr. Begich for gender pay disparity on his Senate staff: Women in his Senate office, the ad says, earn 71 cents for every dollar men do.

Crossroads Groups and Senate Races

American Crossroads has radio ads for Senate races in North Carolina and Alaska.



 In Colorado, Crossroads GPS has an issue advocacy ad against Mark Udall and Obamacare:

 

Crossroads and Primaries

At National Journal, Josh Kraushaar writes that the Crossroads groups have backed Bush alumni in GOP primaries for a New York House seat and an Alaska Senate seat.

To be sure, Crossroads' decisions have proven to be strategically sound, helping stronger candidates prevail through difficult primaries. In Doheny, Stefanik faced a flawed candidate who lost the district twice before and had been photographed making out with one of his fundraising consultants. Sullivan, meanwhile, boasted a compelling resume as a Marine Corps officer, presidential adviser, and statewide officeholder in Alaska. He proved his fundraising viability before Crossroads backed his campaign, while his leading Republican opponent, Alaska Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, has struggled to put together a professional operation.

But critics of the group's tactics argue that valuable resources were diverted to an inconsequential House primary, when other Republican establishment groups were fighting to save Sen. Thad Cochran's career in Mississippi, and by extension, the GOP's Senate prospects. After Cochran finished second in the initial primary, Crossroads publicly telegraphed it wasn't doing anything more to help the embattled incumbent for the runoff. Crossroads has also stayed out of other contested Republican primaries where the quality of the nominee made a big difference, like in Georgia and Iowa. By contrast, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which has played an outsize role in nominating fights this cycle, aired ads in those races on behalf of Joni Ernst and Rep. Jack Kingston.

American Crossroads in Kentucky and Alaska

In Kentucky, American Crossroads links Alison Lundergan Grimes to Elizabeth Warren and Barack Obama.

In Alaska, it links Mark Begich to Obama, and uses Don Young to accuse him of false credit-claiming.


 

Crossroads GPS v. Begich and Pryor

In issue-advocacy ads (the tag lines tells viewers to contact the members, and do not mention the election), Crossroads GPS goes after Mark Begich (D-AK) and Mark Pryor (D-AR) over Obamacare.

The Crossroads Groups v. Hagan and Begich

Crossroads GPS goes after Kay Hagan (D-NC) on Obamacare:



And American Crossroads goes after Mark Begich (D-AK) on the VA scandal:

Crossroads GPS on VA Scandal

CNN reports:

The Veterans Affairs scandal's been a major issue on the campaign trail the past couple of weeks. Now it's front and center in the campaign ad wars.

Crossroads GPS, the non-profit sister organization to American Crossroads, a leading pro-GOP outside group which was co-founded and steered by Karl Rove, says that starting Wednesday it will start running a television commercial in Alaska that's critical of Sen. Mark Begich over his reaction to the growing controversy, which was first reported by CNN six months ago.

Sun Tzu and the Kochs

Sun Tzu, The Art of War:

When the enemy is at ease, be able to weary him; when well fed, to starve him; when at rest, to make him move. Appear at places to which he must hasten; move swiftly where he does not expect you.
...
The enemy must not know where I intend to give battle. For if he does not know where I intend to give battle he must prepare in a great many places. And when he prepares in a great many places, those I have to fight in any one place will be few.

Nicholas Confessore reports at The New York Times:

Democrats in races that will help determine control of the Senate are rapidly burning through their campaign cash, whittling away their financial advantage over Republican opponents as they fend off attacks from conservative groups, according to figures released through Friday.

The spending on both sides underscores the critical role that outside conservative groups are playing as Republicans try to retake the Senate. In state after state, organizations like Americans for Prosperity, the nonprofit linked to the conservative billionaires David H. and Charles G. Koch, have kept Democrats on the defensive with a barrage of negative ads while establishment-backed Republican candidates raise money and navigate their way through primaries.

In Alaska, the Democratic incumbent, Senator Mark Begich, spent about as much money as he raised during the first three months of the year, while Dan Sullivan, a Republican candidate and former state attorney general, increased his fund-raising and substantially narrowed Mr. Begich’s advantage in cash on hand.

In Montana, Senator John Walsh, a Democrat, spent almost three-quarters of the money he raised since January, ending with about $700,000. Representative Bruce Braley of Iowa, the likely Democratic nominee for Senate, spent over 60 percent of the cash he raised.

Senator Mary L. Landrieu, Democrat of Louisiana, spent only about a third of what she collected through the end of March. But last month, Ms. Landrieu reserved $2.7 million of advertising time, according to strategists tracking both parties’ television spending, which will cut deeply into the $7.5 million she reported at the beginning of April.

Crossroads and Rice in Alaska Senate Race

Cameron Joseph reports at The Hill:

Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is endorsing Alaska Senate candidate Dan Sullivan (R), defending her former employee's record in a new ad for American Crossroads

The ad marks one of Rice's first endorsements of the 2014 election cycle, and Crossroads's first decision to support a Republican candidate who faces a competitive primary.

In the ad, Rice responds to recent criticism from both Democrats and his GOP opponents that Sullivan is a carpetbagger. He grew up in Ohio and moved from Alaska to the Washington, D.C., area early last decade to work at the White House before serving under Rice on the National Security Council and at the State Department.